DAILY BLOG - December 14, 2022

 Good Afternoon friends! This is your daily weather blog!

A gloomy, rainy, cloudy day in underway here in the mid-south. Temperatures are chilly hanging around in the low to mid 40s areawide. Expect scattered rain showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder to continue through 8pm tonight. After 8pm, things should turn dry and cold. After days of no sunshine, the sun will return tomorrow, but it maybe in the afternoon before it makes an appearance. Temperatures will remain quite cold for the rest of the week, though no precipitation to mention at this point. 

THE WEEKEND: The Majority of the weekend looks fine. A bag of cold air will be situated over the mid-south, keeping temperatures around or just below average for the weekend. Sunday night, medium range  models try to develop a low pressure system over the area, which could bring a shot for a wintry mix. Confidence in this occurring remains very low due to model inconsistencies, but will continue to monitor the trends for anything more concerning. 

Going into the next week, temperatures may moderate again for the first part of the week. Temperatures could go slightly above average, but dry conditions are largely expected to prevail. 

Perhaps, the more interesting set-up is what could happen on or around Christmas weekend. Long range guidance develops a trough over the mid-west region and brings the trough southward into the mid-south, along with a giant smorgasbord of cold, arctic air. On top of that, around half of the models try to place a significant winter storm in our region during this time frame. There is lot of uncertainty with the winter storm aspect of this forecast, but the cold air is a lock. So for now, will keep the forecast somewhat conservative and mention a chance of snow Wednesday night - Friday, with bitter cold temperatures lasting through the weekend. 


CONFIDENCE:

High on short term rainfall and temps. 

High confidence for cold and dry weather this upcoming weekend. 

Low confidence for a wintry mix Sunday night - Monday. 

Low-Medium confidence on Christmas week Weather

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