Brady's Weather Blog

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE MONDAY JANUARY 15, 2024 @ 3:40 PM CST ...DISCUSSION... Snow accumulation has officially ended in West Tennessee (for now!), but the impact continues to be significant. Snow/ice covered road remains, and conditions are not expected to improve as temperatures will remain bitterly cold. Overnight lows will drop into the single digits tonight, with wind chills -3 to -8 degrees area wide. As a result, we will have a wind chill advisory through 10:00 am on Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate some on Wednesday, but probably not above freezing, with sunshine expected all day. The NBM guidance puts temperatures in the upper 20s on Wednesday, but feel this is a bit too high considering snowpack on the ground.  Things get tricky heading into Thursday. Another advancing system is expected to approach the Mid South. Guidance seems to want to rapidly increase temperatures above freezing for areas south of I-40, and keep temperatures right at or very near freezing for areas...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE: SATURDAY JANAURY 13, 2024 @ 3:02 PM CST KEY MESSAGES:   1.) A Winter Storm is expected to impact the entire Mid South with accumulating snowfall beginning Sunday afternoon and lasting into Monday.  2.) Dangerously cold temperatures are also expected tonight, and will get colder going into the early part of next week.  3.) Expect hazardous travel conditions most of next week.  ..DISCUSSION... ***MAJOR WINTER STORM AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED*** The primary focus for today's forecast issuance is going to be on the approaching dangerously cold temperatures and winter storm. The long awaited arctic airmass will begin to impact the Mid South this evening, plummeting temperatures to the teens by Sunday morning. Ahead of the front, conditions are dry and chilly this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s areawide. Take advantage of the above freezing temperatures to get those pipes protected against the cold! W...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE: FRIDAY JANUARY 12, 2024 @ 4:10 PM CST KEY MESSAGES:  1.) A Winter storm is taking aim at the Mid South for Sunday night and Monday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the entire mid south 2.) Bitter cold is now filtering into the Mid South. The air will only get colder from here on out.  3.) The combination of snowfall and bitter cold will create hazardous travel Monday and Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday.  SHORT TERM:   Latest surface analysis depicts a reinforcing cold front parallel to the Mississippi River. Behind the front, temperatures have dipped into the upper teens and lower 20s in West and Central Arkansas. These air temperatures will filter into the Mid South causing overnight lows to drop into the 20s overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Ahead of this front, strong gusty winds will continue to be in the 20-30 mph range with gusts near 50 mph at times. A wind advisory remains in effect areawide through Midnight tonight. Cool...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE:  FRIDAY JANUARY 12, 2024 @ 7:52 AM  KEY MESSAGES:  1.) A stormy/active day expected today with highs winds, heavy rain all forecast for today. This makes today a "First Alert Weather Day".  2.) A very dangerous and potentially damaging blast of arctic air will envelop the entire area Saturday night. A week or more of below freezing temperatures is expected. Wind chills below zero and as low as -10 to  -20 is forecast.  3.) Accumulating Snow fall is possible Sunday night into Monday. Still too early to talk about amounts.  SHORT TERM: (Today Through Saturday) A very active morning of weather is underway across the area. We do have a Tornado Watch that is in effect for the far southern counties of West Tennessee. This is the area where the greatest chances of severe weather will remain for the rest of the morning, before this system moves out of here. Over the rest of the area, rain is on-going. Expect most locations to pick up anyw...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE THURSDAY JANUARY 11, 2024 @ 7:12 PM  ..UPDATED DISCUSSION.... The key messages stated in the last discussion remain valid in this updated discussion. The overall forecast is in good shape. We continue a Wind Advisory for all of the Mid South for tomorrow. I do expect a part of this advisory to get upgraded to a High Wind Warning at some point. Tomorrow will be extremely windy with 45-55 mph gusts. Prepare for power outages tomorrow, and the potential for trees to come down. The remainder of the forecast is in great shape. We still expect accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday. 3-4 inches of snow seems like a good bet, followed by extremely dangerous wind chills and temperatures Monday night through Wednesday at the minimum. 

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE THURSDAY JANUARY 11, 2024 @ 12:47 PM  KEY MESSAGES:  1.) Strong to potentially damaging gradient wind gusts (45-60 mph) are expected tonight into tomorrow, along with heavy rain, and the potential for a few storms mainly Friday AM.  2.) Still tracking the potential for accumulating snow Sunday into Monday next week. It remains too early to be specific with any accumulation potential.  3.) A blast of arctic air invades the region beginning tomorrow night, with the coldest air filtering in Monday PM. Widespread wind chills of -15 to - 24 are expected.  SHORT TERM:   A very active short and long term forecast today! Midday GOES water vapor shows an upper low pressure over Arizona at this hour. This feature will quickly move into the southern plains by midnight tonight. Strongly diffluent flow will overspread the Mid South prior to sunrise, before a 991 mb surface low tracks directly overhead, while deepening to 983 mb. By 6 am, there shoul...

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:18 pm CST Thursday March 2, 2023 SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night) Go Outside. Enjoy this nice weather while you can. In just a few short hours... It won't be like this, not until Saturday morning anyway. It would be an understatement to say that we are in the "Calm before the storm"...and that's quite literally. We have a smorgasbord of weather in the short term so let's dive in.  Let's start with tonight: As I type this, an already intense closed low system has dug into northern Mexico. This system will eject northeastward over the next few hours, and it is does, It is going to bring a severe weather outbreak to portions of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. It's going to be a long night for them. As for us, we are also in for a long night, as a warm front is going to lift north through the region. Storms are expected to develop along this warm front and some of them could become severe w...

 The forecast has been updated to include a Tornado Watch that has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the southern half of West Tennessee. 

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:03 pm CST March 1, 2023 *** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY *** Bottom Line up front: Everybody should have multiple ways of receiving warnings over the next 24-30 hours. Everybody should also know their severe weather safety plan, and enact that plan when warnings are issued.  SHORT TERM :  Currently, a few light rain showers are being observed over portions of Tipton County Tennessee at this hour, but other than that, conditions are clear, calm and quiet for now. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s everywhere, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. It feels like a severe weather day around the mid south. The Storm Prediction center has placed an enhanced risk of severe weather across the southern half of West Tennessee, and a slight risk everywhere else. A lot of moisture, high CAPE, and decent height falls will probably contribute to some severe storms across the area. All modes of severe will be possible with hail and win...

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - UPDATED  Brady's Weather Page 6:25 pm CST Wednesday February 15, 2023 Currently...radars are quiet, though convection is starting to form over portions of North central Mississippi at this hour. We remain on track for a long duration nocturnal severe weather outbreak for tonight, potentially starting as early as 8:00 pm. Recent forecast guidance is suggesting more Instability, which is going to increase the severe weather potential substantially. Guidance is also suggesting storms may hang around a lot longer tomorrow morning. This potential will be monitored closely. Prepare NOW for a dangerous night severe weather. Have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts and know your tornado safe place!

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 1:03 pm CST Tuesday February 14, 2023 Happy Valentines Day!!! Current radar analysis early this afternoon shows a line of showers from about Kennett Missouri to Lepanto Arkansas to near Memphis Tennessee at this hour. This line of showers will continue to quickly move to the east. Behind this line, very strong gradient winds are expected. Wind gusts this afternoon could reach as high as 50 MPH. A wind advisory remains in effect for all of West Tennessee this afternoon. We also have a First Alert weather day in effect for the strong gusty winds.  Tomorrow, all eyes to the skies...Literally! Most of the day tomorrow is largely expected to be dry with lots of sunshine. There are indication some clouds could build in as early as late morning, but confidence is low. Warm Air advection is expected to settle in as a warm front lifts north through the Mid South. This will allow temperatures to skyrocket into the 70s, and dewpoin...

  𝗙𝗜𝗥𝗦𝗧 𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗥𝗧 𝗪𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥 𝗗𝗔𝗬 - 𝗧𝗨𝗘𝗦𝗗𝗔𝗬  I am issuing a FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY for Tuesday (February 14) for the potential for very strong gradient winds (Not related to Thunderstorms). The National weather service has issued a Wind advisory for all of West Tennessee indicating wind gusts as high as 50 MPH is likely. This level of wind can cause tree damage and powerline damage. Power outages are possible, especially since the ground is very moist. A separate First Alert Weather Day may need to be declared for Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for the severe weather potential. Stay tuned!

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 8:12 am CST Monday January 30, 2023 🚨*** ICE STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIDDAY ***🚨 The focus of today's forecast issuance will be on the impending ice storm which is poised to impact the Mid-South later tonight through Wednesday Midday.  Overnight, model guidance trended significantly higher with ice accumulations across the area. Now expect a quarter to a half inch of ice accumulation across the majority of West Tennessee. As a result of this significant increase, The National Weather Service did hoist an ICE STORM WARNING for 90% of West Tennessee through noon Wednesday. Expect near impossible travel, tree damage, and some power outages. Travel is strongly discouraged through Midday Wednesday. For the other 10% of West Tennessee, there is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect through the same time frame. In these areas, sleet will mix in with the freezing rain, and should keep overall storm total...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 1:46 am CST Wednesday January 18, 2023 SHORT TERM : (Now through Saturday) ***Severe storms likely this afternoon and evening across the area***  Currently, a few showers are beginning to pop up across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel early this morning. Expect showers to increase in coverage over the next few hours as warm air advection from the gulf of Mexico begins. Temperatures at this hour are in the 40s and 50s areawide. Today is expected to be an active weather day across the area. The Storm Prediction Center continues to outline a Level 2 risk of severe weather across virtually all of West Tennessee and the mid south region. Looking at the parameters, not much change has occurred. The Short Term convective allowing models continue to paint aggressively high CAPE values across the region, while the global ensembles continue to show little to no Instability. Wind shear is expected to be exceptionally strong and very sup...

Severe storms are once again threatening the mid south for your day on Wednesday. Wednesday is  a FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY as the threat is increasing for our area. All modes of severe currently look possible. Stay with Brady's Weather page for additional information as it is received. 

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 7:40 am CST Tuesday January 17, 2023 SHORT TERM (Today Through Tomorrow)  This morning's short term forecast issuance will be dominated by the potential for severe thunderstorms across the region tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center overnight upgraded the entire mid south to a Level 2/5 SLIGHT risk of severe storms. Looking at some of the parameters, Instability still looks quite limited across our region. The more concerning part of this forecast is perhaps the wind energy which is very high tomorrow. Strong amounts of wind energy can sometimes overcome a limited amount of Instability and provide severe weather. The wind dynamics are extremely favorable, as are most of the severe weather parameters tomorrow. If more Instability can be realized than what is expected at the moment, a dangerous severe weather day could be in store for the mid south. This scenario however looks unlikely at this current time, but trends will be monitor...

 Good Morning friends! This is your daily weather blog and forecast for Monday December 26.  Current radar analysis early this morning shows snow showers moving over the mid south. These snow showers will continue to spread over the entire area before moving out around 9 or 10 am this morning. Slick travel is expected as surface temperatures remain well below freezing after the major cold spell the other night. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for all of West Tennessee until 3:00 pm this afternoon. Tonight, temperatures will drop back below freezing which means anything that melts (if any) will refreeze into black ice, potentially making travel difficult in the morning as well.  By Mid-week, a disturbance moves in from the west bringing a chance for showers to the area. Moderating temperatures will keep this precipitation all liquid. By the weekend, temperatures moderate into the 60s and model guidance is even hinting at a shot for strong to severe storms by the beg...

 This is your daily forecast for December 22, 202 🚨  Dangerous weather expected for the mid south this afternoon. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions  🚨 Currently, radar is showing some light rain or flurries around West Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. This may not be making it all the way to the surface. This is only an appetizer as to what is coming later today. Currently, temperatures are in the 40s everywhere as expected. The inbound arctic air and snow will be the heavyweight of today's forecast issuance.  Model guidance continues to be in strong agreement with the arrival of the arctic cold front by mid afternoon across the northern sections of the area. Precipitation is expected to develop along the front initially as rain, but will quickly transition to snow as the temperatures plunges. Large scale upper forcing will create quite a bit of lift, especially north of I-40. This creates a very conducive environment to support accumulating snowfa...