Daily Blog - January 13, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page

3:10 pm CST Friday January 13, 2023


..SUMMARY...

Dry and tranquil weather is anticipated until our next system approaches our area of the West Sunday night. Temperatures will gradually warm each day. Rain Showers, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will start off the work week and may last into Tuesday morning. A brief period of dry weather is expected before the arrival of our next big weather system Tuesday night into Wednesday. See discussion below for details. 


..DISCUSSION...

A cloudy and chilly day today due to an upper level trough moving slowly across the Tennessee River valley. High pressure is building to our west and will settle into the Mid South later on tonight. This high pressure will squash rain chances for the next day or so, and will also allow temperatures to gradually warm each day with highs reaching the 50s and possibly lower 60s.

Our next system will spin up from the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region and move east through our area during the overnight hours Monday. This is almost strictly a rain event, but some elevated instability could contribute to a couple claps of thunder. We also enter a warming trend, contributing to the aforementioned Instability, but the severe weather threat looks to remain zero with this system. Showers could linger into early Tuesday morning, allotting for only a small window of dry weather before the next system arrives into our area. 

By Tuesday night, our next weather is poised to arrive in the Mid South. This system certainly looks concerning for being 6 days out, but models are not in very good alignments with respects to timing and location. The GFS forecast model suggests more Texas/Oklahoma orientation of this system,  while the European forecast model suggest this system could originate along the gulf coast, with warm, moist tropical air filtering into the area. It will most likely be an overnight event, but again we are 6 days out, so this could change. Will continue to monitor. 

CONFIDENCE:

Low Confidence on long term forecast. 

High confidence on all other elements

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