Daily Blog - January 26, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page

9:37 am CST Wednesday January 25, 2023

Good Morning West Tennessee! A quiet day is in store for us. Temperatures around the area are in the 30s and some low 40s. Clouds will be hit or miss today, but there should also be some sunshine. A quiet next couple days of is expected with a gradual warm up into the low to mid 50s by Saturday. On Sunday, our next shot of rain arrives, with nearly all of the global models showing our area getting rain. Have introduced likely chances of rain for Sunday. Thankfully, the severe weather threat looks zero at this point, and temperatures will be simply too warm for any wintry weather concerns. 

Next week, the weather pattern gets really interesting around this part of the country. An upper low will dive down the West Coast late Friday and set up a southwesterly flow over the Lower Mississippi valley this weekend. A stalled front will lift back north into the Mid-South and will interact with several shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow aloft. This will bring a period of very unsettled weather to the mid south. Warm air to our southeast, and cold arctic air to our north, the position of both features will ultimately dictate how much rain and wintry weather we get. At this point, it looks like an impactful heavy rain event looks likely along and south of I-40 with 2-4 inches of rain seeming quite likely, and an impactful icing event seems possible along and north of I-40. It's still too early to hash out all the details. Have added a chance of wintry mix to the 7 day forecast for areas north of I-40, and kept rain, potentially heavy rain in the forecast for areas south of I-40. I opted to stay close to the National Blend of Models guidance for temperatures. Interestingly, the Canadian model is suggesting overnight lows late next week in the single digits. This is the outlier of all the long term models, but one thing is for sure, it will be cold. 

CONFIDENCE: 

Medium confidence on ice, high confidence on all other elements

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