Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - February 18, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion

Brady's Weather Page

12:01 pm CST Saturday February 18, 2023

SHORT TERM:

Not much going on weather wise in the short term forecast. High pressure is expected to be in firm control of our weather through early Monday morning. Temperatures will be on a steady rise for the next couple days. By Monday afternoon, model guidance is split on whether or not a minor disturbance can push some rain showers into the mid south. Given the split model guidance, decided to play it down the middle and mention a slight chance of a few showers for Monday afternoon/evening time frame, with better chances of rain Tuesday as depicted by the majority of the medium range and long range forecast guidance. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to near 70 through the Tuesday timeframe. 

LONG TERM: 

On Wednesday, A potent upper level low pressure system is progged to eject out of Texas and into the mid south region late afternoon Wednesday. A southwesterly flow aloft will allow ample gulf moisture to flow into the mid south bringing with it the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will range from the mid 70s to some places even hitting 80 degrees potentially. Some model variability exists regarding the exact strength of this low, but a favorable time of day for severe weather seems to be a lock at this point. Model guidance is being rather modest with Instability, and that maybe in part due to early morning clouds and rainfall. Despite the potential for early day convection, the combination of intense wind fields, combined with a strong southwesterly flow aloft, and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, It seems reasonable to mention the chance for strong to severe storms during this time frame. Looking at the CIPS analogs for the 96-120 hour timeframe there is an increasing possibility of severe weather across the mid south, but as mentioned above, model variability on strength of the low, and amount of Surface based CAPE preludes a mention in the 7 day forecast for now. This may need to be added later as model guidance converges on a solution. 

Beyond Wednesday, model guidance significantly diverges, and confidence on impactful weather is low. There are glaring Indications that just beyond this forecast package, a heavy rain/flooding event may set up as a warm front stalls over the area. This will be something to monitor in subsequent forecasts. 

CONFIDENCE: 

Medium confidence on all elements

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