Weather Forecast and Discussion - January 13

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE:
SATURDAY JANAURY 13, 2024 @ 3:02 PM CST

KEY MESSAGES: 
1.) A Winter Storm is expected to impact the entire Mid South with accumulating snowfall beginning Sunday afternoon and lasting into Monday. 

2.) Dangerously cold temperatures are also expected tonight, and will get colder going into the early part of next week. 

3.) Expect hazardous travel conditions most of next week. 

..DISCUSSION...

***MAJOR WINTER STORM AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED***

The primary focus for today's forecast issuance is going to be on the approaching dangerously cold temperatures and winter storm. The long awaited arctic airmass will begin to impact the Mid South this evening, plummeting temperatures to the teens by Sunday morning. Ahead of the front, conditions are dry and chilly this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s areawide. Take advantage of the above freezing temperatures to get those pipes protected against the cold! Wind chills tonight could dip as low as -5 across portions of the northwest Tennessee, where a Wind Chill Advisory has been hoisted by the National Weather Service. Additional wind chill headlines will be needed through early next week, as the temperatures only get colder. 

The star of the show, snowfall, looks to begin as early as 2-3pm tomorrow afternoon and continue through late Monday night. Snowfall amounts vary greatly across the Mid South, with areas south of I-40 currently projected to see the higher snowfall amounts. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the entire Mid South which goes into effect at noon tomorrow. Everyone will see accumulating snowfall, that will result in dangerous road conditions by Sunday evening. I am a bit weary about the projection of lesser snowfall amounts north of I-40 because the dendritic growth zone (DGZ zone) is fully saturated throughout the entire Mid South, which alone increases confidence in snow accumulations. Forecast models have struggled on accumulations thus far. Hope to see the struggles ironed out with future model runs. 

Bitter cold continues into early next week, with wind chills likely dropping to 15 below zero for much of the Mid South. It cannot be stated enough that this cold will damage your pipes if not protected. Additionally, take proper precautions to protect you, your pets, your neighbors, and your plants. This cold is life threatening if proper precautions are not taken. 

On Tuesday, dry conditions return, but the bitter cold is here to stay. Temperatures will remain below freezing until Thursday, where most areas may hover just above freezing. There is another chance of wintry weather on Thursday, but will wait until this first round is passed before digging much into that one. 

CONFIDENCE: 
High confidence on all elements 

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