Weather Forecast and Discussion - PM UPDATE (Jan 10)

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE
WEDNESDAY JANUARY 10, 2024 @ 3:35 PM 

KEY MESSAGES: 
1.) Quiet weather "for now" -- but our next storm system is on the way for Friday and Friday night with rain and strong winds. 

2.) Another storm system arrives Sunday night with increasing potential for accumulating snowfall across the region. 

3.) Bitter cold sets in Monday night and likely lasts a couple days or more. 

SHORT TERM: 
The short term forecast this evening will perhaps be one of the shorter ones we have for a few days. Temperatures this afternoon are in the upper 40s with a few places hitting 50. Overall, tranquil weather is expected for the remainder of the short term period. We will see increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon ahead of the Friday storm system which we will discuss at the beginning of the long term discussion. 

LONG TERM: 

*** LIFE THREATENING COLD TEMPERATURES  EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK ***

The long term picks up with Friday. A strong area of low pressure will move over the area during the day on Friday, bringing with it rain and very strong winds. The main weather issue, similar to the last storm will be the wind. In fact, the winds may be a tad stronger than what we had on Monday. Regardless, a tightening pressure gradient will yield to sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts likely exceeding 45-50 mph! A wind advisory is likely a slam dunk at this point in time, but the models have slowly trended higher with wind gusts, so would not be surprised to see high wind warnings issued. If the trend continues in showing higher gusts, First Alert weather day may need to be considered for Friday. By Friday night, this system moves east and much colder air filters in behind for our Saturday. 

By Sunday, our next system begins to enter the picture, but this time will likely feature accumulating snowfall Sunday night into Monday. By this time, arctic air will be firmly in place, so any snow that does fall will stick to everything, creating hazardous travel conditions by Sunday night. It remains too soon to get in the weeds with potential snowfall accumulations, but if I had to take a stab at it, I would say 3-5 inches of snow possible, especially north of I-40, with lower amounts south of I-40. 

Snow aside, the bigger story, and the one that perhaps maybe the most impactful will be the dangerous cold that is headed our way for next week. Polar air is forecast to plunge into the area Sunday night, dropping our temperatures some 30+ degrees below average. By Monday night and Tuesday night, it seems very possible that we have actual air temperatures below zero and wind chill values likely -20 or lower! This type of cold is extremely dangerous, not only to the human body, but also to our pipes and cars. Now is the time to prepare your home and car for this cold, and make plans to protect your pets and check on your neighbors! 

CONFIDENCE: 
High confidence on all elements. 

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