DAILY BLOG - December 18th, 2022

 **** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY : WEDNESDAY 12/21 - MONDAY 12/26 **** 

Good Morning! Here is your daily forecast blog for December 18, 2022! 

Key Messages: 

1.) Generally quiet weather over the next few days. 

2.) A few rain or snow showers are possible Monday. Confidence is low in this scenario. 

3.) A significant arctic outbreak is expected later this week, with the potential for accumulating snowfall. 


SHORT TERM: (Today - Tuesday) 

The short term is expected to remain largely tranquil. Chilly temperatures are expected for the duration of the short term. Model guidance has continued to show some potential for rainfall or a few snow showers across the area Monday morning, before transitioning to all rain by midday. No impacts are expected from this. Guidance has backed off on showing this in the previous run of the models, but will continue a mention for now. Tuesday is expected to be a chilly day for the area, but we will see lots of sun with highs in the 40s. 


LONG TERM: (Wednesday - Monday) 

The above system is not the main story for this forecast package. The bigger threat will come from an arctic cold front which is expected to sweep across the area Thursday afternoon and evening. This could be a very impressive and highly impactful system, as all guidance points to dangerously low temperatures for the area. This system will also bring a shot of wintry weather to our area. Guidance continues to trend towards a deeper trough ejection, which would probably increase our snow chances. Right now, the GFS remains the most bullish with bringing in snow to the area. The National Blend of Models follows suit in showing some accumulating snow across the area Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. 

The more certain aspect with this system will be the very dangerous cold that slams into the mid south Thursday night. Most places will probably see low temperatures in the single digits by Friday morning, with daytime highs likely struggling to reach 15 degrees in most places. Strong winds will also be a concern, so well below zero wind chills are likely for several days after the arctic front moves through. I would expect to see wind chill advisories and warnings issued as we get closer to this arctic outbreak. Now is the time to prepare for a long duration cold event! Protective action to protect you, your family, your pets, and your outdoor pipes should be taken. Prepare now for an extended period of very dangerous cold! This has the potential to be a very dangerous situation and can be life threatening if protective action is not taken.  


CONFIDENCE:

High confidence on temperatures. 

Medium confidence on all other elements. 

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