DAILY BLOG - December 15, 2021

 Good Afternoon. This is your Daily for December 15th, 2022. 

SHORT TERM: (Rest of Today - Saturday night)

The main story in the short term will be the well below normal temperatures, and perhaps a couple of chances for a few snow flurries or sprinkles around the area. 

A occluded storm system is making its way across the northern tier of the United States at this hour, bringing blizzard conditions to the Dakota's and Minnesota. An area of high pressure is shunted just to our south, which is keeping us dry, and for the first time in 14 days...we actually have sunshine! FINALLY! Temperature are in the mid to upper 40s everywhere. Tonight, expect clear skies, and much colder conditions. For the rest of the short term, expect high temperatures daily in the 40s, maybe reaching 50 in some locations. We will remain largely dry, and overnight lows will drop into the 30s each night. 

SUNDAY: Expect a good amount of sunshine as high pressure will continue to dominate our weather locally. Temperatures will remain quite chilly with most locations not getting out of the 30s on Sunday. Despite this chill. this is nothing compared to what is on the horizon for the latter part of next week. 

LONG TERM: (Monday - Thursday) 

On Monday, an area of energy is expected to eject out of the plains and weaken as it approaches our area. Up to this point, guidance has struggled to produce much in the way of precipitation, but I cannot totally rule out some sprinkles or snow flurries given the cold airmass that will be in place. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the sunshine returns again. High pressure remains in firm control of our weather through this period. Guidance is suggesting temperatures could reach the 50s both days, but for now will advertise temperatures in the upper 40s everywhere until there is a better consensus amongst the long term models. 

The signal remains very very strong for a blast of polar air to arrive in here Thursday night and last potentially through Christmas! Most guidance is placing temperatures 25-35 degrees below average, meaning daytime highs may struggle to reach 20, and overnight lows perhaps in the single digits if not lower!! BRRRRR! There is high confidence in dangerous cold during this timeframe. Should also mention wind chills could dip below zero. 

What is less confidence during this timeframe is whether or not any wintry precipitation accompanies this blast of polar air. Guidance has increased our chances of measurable precipitation locally, and in fact is rather high for being 6-7 days out. Current probabilities of measurable precipitation range from 60-80% areawide, which is high being 7 days out. A lot can still change so let's just monitor this for now. 

CONFIDENCE: 

High confidence in short term forecast. 

High confidence in long term cold. 

Low to Medium in Long Term Precipitation. 

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