DAILY BLOG - December 20, 2022

  **** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY : THURSDAY 12/22 - MONDAY 12/26 **** 

Good Evening. This is your daily blog and forecast for Tuesday December 20, 2022.

SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday) 

The short term forecast remains simple and tranquil. Temperatures will be a little on the chilly side with mid to upper 40s for daytime highs Wednesday. Skies will be cloudy, but I do not expect any rainfall Wednesday. Model guidance tries to develop pre-frontal showers Wednesday night, but confidence on this occurring is low. 

LONG TERM: (Thursday Through Tuesday) 

*** Arctic Air to plunge into the area Thursday afternoon with dangerous cold temperatures ***

On Thursday, a deep upper level low pressure system is progged to track from the Northern Great Plains eastward into the Great Lakes. The trailing Arctic cold front is expected to move into our area Thursday afternoon and evening. The better chances for rainfall Thursday will be directly along the front itself. Arctic air is forecast to plunge in behind the front, immediately changing the rain over to snow due to the depth of the cold air. Minor impacts from Snow is currently expected as it should be short lived and pavement temperatures will likely be above freezing initially. Accumulations of 1-3 inches is possible north of the I-40 corridor, with significantly lesser amounts south of I-40. Will continue to keep close tabs on our snow potential. 

The bigger story with this front will be the bitter cold airmass that will plunge into the area behind the front. Model guidance is continuing to trend lower with Temperatures. Temperatures are expected to plunge 40-50 degrees in a short amount of time, increasing the risk for a flash freeze over the area. Low temperatures Thursday night will drop well into the single digits, perhaps near zero in some locations. Winds will be very gusty up to 45 MPH wind gusts, which will create extremely dangerous wind chills of -15 degrees to -25 degrees. The strong winds could knock down tree branches and cause power outages. Should note the issuance of a Wind Chill Watch for the entire area. Expect this to get upgraded to a Wind Chill Warning in the next 24 or so hours. Winds will gradually die down on Friday, but the bitter cold temperatures will continue through the holiday weekend. The prolonged period of freezing temperatures could create major issues for pipes and even cause significant travel disruptions, especially Thursday night into Friday Morning. 

Going into the Monday timeframe, Models are starting to show a clipper system impacting the mid south. This system will bear watching as it comes in around the time the cold airmass is retreating. If the cold hangs around longer than what is forecasted, this too could bring impactful wintry weather to our area. Low confidence exists in this scenario due to model differences, so for now will mention a chance for a few flurries Monday. On Tuesday, temperatures finally warm back above freezing with sunny skies. 


CONFIDENCE: 

Medium Confidence on Precipitation. 

High confidence in all other elements 

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