Daily Blog - January 14, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page

6:12 pm CST Saturday January 14, 2023


Dry and mild weather is expected to continue for 1 more day before our next weather system moves into the mid south on Monday. Temperatures be slowly warming over the next few days. On Monday, a quick hitting system will bring scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of Thunder. I don't expect much of a storm threat with this system, as Instability is quite low. Rain amounts should remain light. Rain will end Tuesday morning, and Tuesday afternoon and evening look dry for now. 

The next system will waste no time moving into the region. A potent mid level trough will push out of the Southwestern United States and into the southern plains by Tuesday night. Moisture lifting north from the Gulf of Mexico will overspread the region. A piece of energy rotating around the base of the trough will move into the Arkaltex Wednesday afternoon and evening. A surface low may develop across Arkansas and track northeast across MO and IL along a stalled warm front. A trailing cold front will track across the mid South Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strong forcing ascent will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain is possible with 1-2 inches of rain looking like a solid bet at this point. The severe weather aspect of this systems remains quite fuzzy. The kinematics are very good with this system, but the Instability is still the big question. If more Instability can be realized, our severe weather threat could be a significant one. As a little side note, the 12z and 18z model runs have been more bullish with Instability into our region, so we will need to watch this system very closely over the next few days. 

Dry weather returns by Thursday with seasonably cool weather through the Weekend. Our next system moves in early next week. 

CONFIDENCE: 

High confidence on all elements. 


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