Daily Blog - January 19, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page

2:33 pm CST Thursday January 19, 2023

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite imagery trends place an upper level low over Wisconsin and embedded within a longwave trough axis that extends from the Great Lakes Region/Upper Midwest back through the Southwest United States. Meanwhile, at the surface a secondary cold front is located across portions of the area and north Central Mississippi. At 2:30 pm this afternoon, temperatures are in the 50s and 60s areawide. Wintry precipitation in a highly progressive pattern will be the main challenge in today's forecast issuance. 

Gusty winds have diminished across the region as the pressure gradient begins to relax. This trend is expected to continue. The NWS has cancelled the wind advisory issued earlier today, and that seems to be the right call. 

Tonight, high pressure is expected to build into the Mid-South resulting in a return to precipitation free conditions and temperatures falling into the 30s overnight. This period of precipitation free weather is expected to continue into Friday night. Short term models indicate yet another mid level trough and associated occluding cold front moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Mid-Range operational models suggest the potential for very limited Instability to be present, but will not result in anything significant. This also aligns with ensemble guidance probabilities so will leave out mention of thunder for Sunday. 

Latest long range model guidance indicate shortwave riding will build into the Lower MS valley next Monday, bringing a break in the precipitation chances to the Mid South. Another upper level trough and occluding system will move through the region next Tuesday and Wednesday bringing some potential for wintry precipitation to parts of the area. Recent model runs have trended further south with the track of the surface low, so this will be something to watch over the next several days. Stay tuned!

CONFIDENCE: 

Medium Confidence on all elements

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