Daily Blog - January 23, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page

12:29 pm CST Monday January 23, 2023

Northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure will persist today resulting in dry and mostly sunny skies. A transient ridge and surface high pressure will quickly shift east late this afternoon and overnight. A return flow aloft will set up early tomorrow morning as the high pressure shifts over to Eastern Tennessee. A deep trough will approach the area from the west tomorrow afternoon. This will bring rain showers which could start as early as midday in some locations. I do think most of our area will see 1 inch of rainfall out of the system at bare minimum. The wintry precipitation is a very tricky forecast. Latest guidance coming off the Hi-Res output suggests the heavy snow line will be much farther south. Under this scenario, Northwest Tennessee (North of I-40) could see significant amounts of snow and travel impacts. There is still a very high degree of uncertainty in the wintry aspect of the forecast. I considered adding "chance" probabilities of snow to the forecast, but given the uncertainties, I opted not to include such inclusion in this forecast package. If guidance continues to trend more aggressive, an inclusion will be needed in a special blog later today, and potentially a First Alert weather day issuance. Stay tuned! In addition to the snow/rain forecast. there will be a tight pressure gradient. Winds could gust 25-35 MPH. A wind advisory could be necessary. 

Wednesday afternoon, dry conditions will end up prevailing and our area should remain dry through mid weekend. Our next system arrives Saturday night/Sunday timeframe, likely as rain but again trends to be monitored. 

CONFIDENCE: 

Low Confidence on Precip type/amounts

Medium confidence on all other elements

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