Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - Tuesday February 14, 2023

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion

Brady's Weather Page

1:03 pm CST Tuesday February 14, 2023

Happy Valentines Day!!!

Current radar analysis early this afternoon shows a line of showers from about Kennett Missouri to Lepanto Arkansas to near Memphis Tennessee at this hour. This line of showers will continue to quickly move to the east. Behind this line, very strong gradient winds are expected. Wind gusts this afternoon could reach as high as 50 MPH. A wind advisory remains in effect for all of West Tennessee this afternoon. We also have a First Alert weather day in effect for the strong gusty winds. 

Tomorrow, all eyes to the skies...Literally! Most of the day tomorrow is largely expected to be dry with lots of sunshine. There are indication some clouds could build in as early as late morning, but confidence is low. Warm Air advection is expected to settle in as a warm front lifts north through the Mid South. This will allow temperatures to skyrocket into the 70s, and dewpoints will likely exceed 65 everywhere! This environment is going to set the stage for severe weather late tomorrow afternoon through Thursday AM. The Storm Prediction Center maintains the Slight Risk of Severe thunderstorms (Level 2/5) for both tomorrow and Thursday morning. Taking a look at atmospheric profiles, recent CAM guidance is suggesting rather bullish indications for supercells to develop by late afternoon. If this were to occur, strong amounts of wind shear, combined with SRH values exceeding 300 m2/s2 will support sustained rotating updrafts, and ultimately increase tornado potential across the area. A secondary severe weather threat is expected to develop during the overnight hours. All modes of severe will be possible from this threat as well, making for a particularly dangerous situation, as it will be in the dead middle of the night. The bottom line: Everyone should be prepared for severe weather, and prepare for a nocturnal tornado threat! Review your severe weather plans with your family TODAY and ensure you have fresh batteries in your weather radios! 

Beyond tomorrow, skies clear, and clear, calm and quiet conditions return. By early next week, there are indications our next rain maker arrives. 

CONFIDENCE: 

High confidence on all elements. 

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