Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - March 1st

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion

Brady's Weather Page

3:03 pm CST March 1, 2023

*** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY ***

Bottom Line up front: Everybody should have multiple ways of receiving warnings over the next 24-30 hours. Everybody should also know their severe weather safety plan, and enact that plan when warnings are issued. 

SHORT TERM: 

Currently, a few light rain showers are being observed over portions of Tipton County Tennessee at this hour, but other than that, conditions are clear, calm and quiet for now. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s everywhere, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. It feels like a severe weather day around the mid south. The Storm Prediction center has placed an enhanced risk of severe weather across the southern half of West Tennessee, and a slight risk everywhere else. A lot of moisture, high CAPE, and decent height falls will probably contribute to some severe storms across the area. All modes of severe will be possible with hail and wind being the primary threats. The tornado threat is certainly not zero, but the lack of strong forcing ascent and lack of significant Storm Relative helicity and rather weak bulk shear will probably keep the tornado threat lower than the wind/hail threat. 

On Thursday, another active day of weather is shaping up once again for the Mid South. Currently, the SPC has most of West Tennessee outlined in a slight risk of Severe Thunderstorms. Taking a look at the parameters, parameter space is very conducive for severe weather. Waves of showers and Thunderstorms are expected mainly after dark Thursday. Intense wind fields with SRH values closing in on 400 m2s2, sufficient SFC CAPE, and strong lift will provide a very favorable environment for severe storms, capable of producing all severe hazards, including the potential for strong tornadoes. The better chances for strong tornadoes will probably stay to our south, but it will close enough that a mention is warranted in this forecast package. Another threat associated with this dynamic storm system will be the potential for flooding. Current forecast suggests 3-5 inches of rain across the entire Mid South. Considering the ground already being Saturated from recent rains, any rain that falls with this event will only be runoff, therefore enhancing flooding concerns. There is a Flood Watch for all of West Tennessee and the Mid South to address the potential for flooding. 

LONG TERM: 

The long term starts us off with Friday. Friday morning, showers and storms are likely to be continuing across a lot of the area, with a continuing severe weather threat. By midday Friday, the severe weather threat will be gone, but an extremely tight pressure gradient is expected to set in, and therefore very strong gusty winds are expected Friday afternoon. A high end Wind Advisory is a slam-dunk at this point as winds are likely to gust as high as 55-60 MPH. It is not out of the realm of possibility we see a rare High Wind Warning issued, but the NWS will wait on further guidance before making the decision on any wind-related headlines. 

The rest of the long term looks quiet. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler for the weekend and back into the 70s early next week. The warm up will once again feature the potential for rain showers. Guidance does show some marginal Instability around this time, so thunder could be a concern, but have left it out of the forecast until a better consensus is gained.