DAILY BLOG - Discussion for December 22, 2022

 This is your daily forecast for December 22, 202

🚨 Dangerous weather expected for the mid south this afternoon. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions 🚨

Currently, radar is showing some light rain or flurries around West Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. This may not be making it all the way to the surface. This is only an appetizer as to what is coming later today. Currently, temperatures are in the 40s everywhere as expected. The inbound arctic air and snow will be the heavyweight of today's forecast issuance. 

Model guidance continues to be in strong agreement with the arrival of the arctic cold front by mid afternoon across the northern sections of the area. Precipitation is expected to develop along the front initially as rain, but will quickly transition to snow as the temperatures plunges. Large scale upper forcing will create quite a bit of lift, especially north of I-40. This creates a very conducive environment to support accumulating snowfall. Model guidance continues to suggest there should be a 3-4 hour timeframe for snowfall north of I-40, with perhaps a smaller window for the rest of the area. Currently expect 2-4 inches north of I-40, with 1-2 inches south of I-40 corridor. In either case, gusty winds of up to 40-45 MPH will create blizzard like conditions for a period of time later this afternoon. Dangerous wind chills of -20 degrees or lower will follow suit. This is a dangerous situation, and travel is strongly discouraged for the rest of today and this weekend. 

Dangerous wind chills will continue through the weekend across the area. Expect Wind Chill advisories or warnings to be extended during this timeframe. 

Model guidance continues to hint at potentially another shot at wintry weather on Monday. Confidence in this occurring is very low, but will continue to monitor. 

CONFIDENCE: 

High Confidence on short term forecast. 

Low confidence on long term forecast. 


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