Weather Forecast and Discussion - January 17

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE
WEDNESDAY JANUARY 17, 2024 @ 6:04 PM

..DISCUSSION...
Arctic high pressure is situated over the southeast United States this evening. Temperatures today warmed into the 20s to around freezing under all sunshine, which has helped to melt the snow/ice off of the roadways. Temperatures however are expected to fall quickly as a result of clear skies, and relatively light winds, so anything that has melted will refreeze tonight, creating a potentially dangerous black ice situation. 

By late tonight, a weak mid level shortwave will push into the Southern Plains and into the Mid South by Thursday morning. As a result, expect overrunning to develop across the entire area early Thursday morning. Model soundings show a moistening profile that will be supportive of frozen precipitation during the day. Temperatures will start off in the teens and 20s but should rise into the lower to mid 30s everywhere. I am a bit weary of the models that show us going above freezing tomorrow, because the lack of sunshine combined with snow cover should keep temperatures near or below freezing, so at this time, I am going with the cooler side with respect to temperatures. As a result, freezing rain is expected to accumulate on surfaces. At this time, the expectation is for this to be a relatively light freezing rain event, however there is some concern that if the freezing rain is heavier than forecast, this could end up being something more significant. In either case, roadways will become slick once again, but the good news with this is, if we end up with a lighter event, power outages or trees coming down will not be a concern. 

As a result of the expected freezing rain, A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued with all of West Tennessee and most of the Mid South. Can't argue the issuance of this advisory. Have also issued a First Alert weather day for Thursday as roadways will be impacted, even in a light event scenario. By Mid Afternoon, precipitation should start to move east of the area, with an arctic front arriving overnight. This will put the area back into the "frozen tundra" Expect any water left to refreeze, and once again creating a dangerous black ice situation. 

A very cold period is expected Friday through Saturday night with highs both days well below freezing as a 1040 mb arctic high settles over the region. Saturday will be the coldest day with high temperatures only in the 20s. Single digit lows will be common Saturday and Sunday mornings, with sub zero wind chills likely once again. It seems likely that additional Wind chill Advisories and First Alert Weather Days will be needed. 

By next week, the pattern undergoes a major shift, and a trend to more above average temperatures is evident. Unfortunately, this will be met with a wetter pattern, and possibly thunderstorm potential on or around Mid Week. 

CONFIDENCE: 
High confidence on all elements. 

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