5/26 weather blog

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE
Sunday May 26, 2024 

KEY MESSAGES: 
1.) Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are still expected through 2 am tomorrow morning. The initial round is moving through the area as of this writing. 2 more rounds are expected later this afternoon and tonight. All severe hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flooding) are all possible. 

2.) Obviously, with the expectation of multiple rounds, a flood threat is likely to develop. A flood watch remains in effect for the entire area. 

3.) A much needed break arrives for the bulk of next week with seasonal temperatures, a dryer conditions.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued 8:25 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

*** MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY ***

Currently.....a nasty bow echo is moving through Obion and Weakley counties at this time. 60-70 mph winds can be expected with this feature, and of the course the potential is there for a small spin-up tornado. This bow echo should be almost completely out of the are aby 9:30-10 am timeframe. Thereafter, we get a bit of a lull until the afternoon hours. Latest convective allowing models show the atmosphere having absolutely no trouble recovering, as a few hours of sunshine and clearing will be evident behind this line. Going into this afternoon, the potential for severe weather will increase once again, as most of the CAM's show supercells developing along outflow boundaries across the northern sections of our area. Looking at the soundings from KDYR (Dyersburg) off of the NAM and HRRR models, an ominous atmospheric profile with a "loaded gun" type sounding, very high STP values, and very high supercell composite indexes are evident on point soundings across the northern parts of our area. All of this to say, the threat for tornadoes...potentially strong tornadoes will increase markedly with any supercells that develop this afternoon. 

As the afternoon and evening progresses, yet another round of severe storms will begin to take shape across parts of Missouri. Latest guidance has been quite bullish on another nasty line of severe storms moving through after 7:00 pm tonight. This will be associated with the cold front that will move through. SRH values of 150-225 m2/s2 will keep the threat for tornadoes associated with this line, and also the threat for very strong damaging, straight line winds. Once this line clears the area, the severe threat will come to an end by 4-5 AM Monday morning. After that, a nice break from active weather for the bulk of next week with seasonal temperatures, a drier conditions. 


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