DAILY BLOG - Dec.29, 2022

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page 

11:44 am CST Thursday Dec 29, 2022 


SHORT TERM: (Today Through Saturday) 

Currently, clouds are abundant across the region, but very mild temperatures compared to the last several days around the area. Current radar analysis shows a few sprinkles trying to develop. I expect the sprinkles to remain sparse in coverage, but the clouds will remain numerous for the rest of today. For tonight, I expect rain to increase to our west, however any rain that develops may take awhile to reach West Tennessee. Counties along the MS river stand the best chances of seeing rain tomorrow morning, but the rest of the area should see rain tomorrow night. Widespread 1-2 inches of rain is expected, as well as mild temperatures. 

I remain optimistic that the rain will end just in time for any new year's celebrations on Saturday afternoon and night. Forecast guidance continues to be consistent in showing this. Once the rain moves out, we will be in between systems here in the mid south. 

LONG TERM: (Sunday - Wednesday) 

Picking up on Sunday, most of Sunday should be dry across the area. Once again, I think the clouds will remain numerous across the region. However, late Sunday night into Monday morning, rain chances will increase once again as a potent shortwave trough moves across the Southern Plains. This system looks to lift well northwest of our area as it occludes Monday night into Tuesday, but a trailing trough will affect the region Monday night into Tuesday. This could bring the potential for severe thunderstorms to our area. The Storm Prediction center continues to outline all of our area in their Day 5 Convective outlook. It's pretty rare to see a risk delineation 5 days out, but confidence in severe weather occurring is increasing. Looking at some of the ensembles, most of the ensemble output continues to have modest chances for >500 J/KG of CAPE, but at this long range, that is to be expected. In many set-ups like this, the occluding system to our northwest tends to pinch off the Instability across our area, but so far, the models have not hinted at that this go around. Regardless of severe weather, heavy rain will be a lock Monday night, and when you combine that with the rain just before New Year's localized flash flooding could become a problem. For now, will carry a mention of severe storms for Monday night into Tuesday Morning in the forecast. 

Beyond Tuesday, forecast models hint at another shortwave coming into the area. Once again, severe weather maybe a topic of discussion with this, but there is plenty of time to monitor so stay tuned! 


CONFIDENCE: 

Low Confidence on severe weather

High confidence on all other elements


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