Weather Forecast and Discussion - January 8th, 2024 (AM)

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE 
Monday January 8, 2024 @ 7:42 am 

KEY MESSAGES: 
  • Strong winds and rain expected later today. A wind advisory is in effect for all of our area through Tuesday night. 
  • Another storm system moves through Friday night into Saturday with more rain and strong winds. 
  • Arctic airmass settles in behind this system, setting the stage for a potentially significant winter storm early next week. 

SHORT TERM: (Now through Friday AM) 
The calm before the storm -- and quite literally! Currently, conditions are tranquil across the mid south. Temperatures are in the upper 30s and low 40s everywhere. This tranquil weather does not last long, as a significant surface low will move through the Mid South tonight through Tuesday night. The main impact from this will be from very strong ambient wind gusts up to 50 mph across the entire area. The wind advisory was extended by 6 hours, now in effect until midnight Tuesday night. The other impact to this will be some much needed rainfall. A solid 1-2 inches of rain is expected to fall across the area, which will be very beneficial, as all of our area remains in extreme to exceptional drought. There will also be the potential for some light wintry weather near the Tennessee River as the rain is exiting the mid south. Confidence is very low on this scenario happening, but regardless of confidence, no impacts are expected. 

Behind this system, weak ridging builds in. This will translate to an approximately 48 hour window of tranquil weather before the next storm system moves in. This system will take a similar track as the Monday/Tuesday system, which means -- much of the same impacts. This time however, the potential for a few stronger storms, especially to our south cannot be ruled out. An upper trough moving into the southern plains will take on a negative tilt. Both the EURO and GFS depict a secondary surface low developing near the ArkLaMiss by Friday morning, with the main line of showers and thunderstorms developing along the cold front. At this point, despite very strong wind fields, the better threat for severe weather should remain confined to our south across north Mississippi, where better instability is located. Again, behind this system, some light wintry weather is possible as polar air will surge in behind. Confidence is low again with this scenario, and little to no impacts are expected at this time. 

LONG TERM: (Friday PM and beyond) 
By Friday night, this system should exit our area, and the real taste of winter begins! Polar air will settle into the Mid South by Saturday morning with temperatures plummeting into the teens! BRR! Daytime highs on Sunday and Monday may not get out of the 20s! Fortunately, or unfortunately, our next storm system begins to appear in the picture by Monday night. The polar will remain in place, and that means the stage will be set for what could be a potentially significant winter storm Monday into Tuesday of next week. Of course, this is still a week away, so exact precipitation types, timing, and amounts will be determined over the next few days. It is interesting to note however that virtually all of the long range guidance depicts impactful accumulations of either snow, sleet, or freezing rain during this time. Stay tuned! 

CONFIDENCE ....
High confidence on winds/temps.
Low confidence on wintry precip. 

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