DAILY BLOG - December 19, 2022

  **** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY : THURSDAY 12/22 - MONDAY 12/26 **** 

Good Morning! This is your daily forecast for Monday December 19, 2022. 

SHORT TERM: (Today Through Wednesday) 

Current radar analysis this morning shows some light precipitation near the TN river, moving out of West Tennessee. Radar trends also show some light precipitation moving into the Jonesboro Arkansas area as of 730 am this morning. I expect a few sprinkles this morning, and there could be couple of sleet pellets or snow flurries, but do not expect any impacts this morning. Consider the rest of the short term the "calm before the storm". A zonal flow is expected to set up, which will keep our area locally dry through Wednesday. Temperatures may struggle to get out of the 30s for highs given the extensive cloud cover that we are expecting. 

LONG TERM: (Thursday through Monday) 

Thursday will be a day of drastic change here in the Mid-South. At the beginning of the period, a weakening zonal flow should our area largely dry through late Morning Thursday. By afternoon, a period of cold rain will move through the mid-south and will likely continue up until the arctic front slams into our area. Once the front slams into our area, rain quickly transition to snow and a flash freeze appears increasingly likely Thursday PM. The current temperature forecast through the long term period has remains largely unchanged with the exception of a couple degrees colder than yesterday. 

The current uncertainty in the forecast is the precipitation. Looking at the Weather Prediction Center's Winter Storm Severity index, it has a 40-60% of minor impacts from a Winter Storm across the northern half of West Tennessee, with much lower chances south of I-40. For now, will advertise impactful snowfall north of I-40, while keeping south of I-40 at the "Limited" impacts from snowfall for now. Model guidance continues to go everywhere with snow. The GFS has a higher end winter storm impacting our area with 5-9 inches of snow, while the Euro has only a dusting to near 2 inches across the area. Given this uncertainty, I will take middle ground for now and say 2-4 inches of snow seems a good possibility north of I-40, while south of I-40 may only see a dusting to an inch of snow. Of more certainty, travel impacts will occur from the Flash Freeze we are expecting. Travel could become very dangerous Thursday night into Friday morning, so travel is not advised this Christmas weekend. Regardless of the precipitation aspect, it is going to get downright cold, and you should prepare now for bitter cold! 

CONFIDENCE: 

Medium Confidence on Precipitation. 

High confidence on all other elements 



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - March 1st

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:03 pm CST March 1, 2023 *** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY *** Bottom Line up front: Everybody should have multiple ways of receiving warnings over the next 24-30 hours. Everybody should also know their severe weather safety plan, and enact that plan when warnings are issued.  SHORT TERM :  Currently, a few light rain showers are being observed over portions of Tipton County Tennessee at this hour, but other than that, conditions are clear, calm and quiet for now. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s everywhere, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. It feels like a severe weather day around the mid south. The Storm Prediction center has placed an enhanced risk of severe weather across the southern half of West Tennessee, and a slight risk everywhere else. A lot of moisture, high CAPE, and decent height falls will probably contribute to some severe storms across the area. All modes of severe will be possible with hail and win...
Read more

DAILY BLOG - Discussion for December 22, 2022

 This is your daily forecast for December 22, 202 🚨  Dangerous weather expected for the mid south this afternoon. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions  🚨 Currently, radar is showing some light rain or flurries around West Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. This may not be making it all the way to the surface. This is only an appetizer as to what is coming later today. Currently, temperatures are in the 40s everywhere as expected. The inbound arctic air and snow will be the heavyweight of today's forecast issuance.  Model guidance continues to be in strong agreement with the arrival of the arctic cold front by mid afternoon across the northern sections of the area. Precipitation is expected to develop along the front initially as rain, but will quickly transition to snow as the temperatures plunges. Large scale upper forcing will create quite a bit of lift, especially north of I-40. This creates a very conducive environment to support accumulating snowfa...
Read more

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion -- March 2, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:18 pm CST Thursday March 2, 2023 SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night) Go Outside. Enjoy this nice weather while you can. In just a few short hours... It won't be like this, not until Saturday morning anyway. It would be an understatement to say that we are in the "Calm before the storm"...and that's quite literally. We have a smorgasbord of weather in the short term so let's dive in.  Let's start with tonight: As I type this, an already intense closed low system has dug into northern Mexico. This system will eject northeastward over the next few hours, and it is does, It is going to bring a severe weather outbreak to portions of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. It's going to be a long night for them. As for us, we are also in for a long night, as a warm front is going to lift north through the region. Storms are expected to develop along this warm front and some of them could become severe w...
Read more