DAILY BLOG - December 28, 2022

 Good Afternoon friends! This is your daily blog for Wednesday December 28th. 

The anticipated pattern change is underway as expected and is poised to bring spring-like warmth to the mid south. Currently, temperatures are in the 50s and 60s areawide, with lots of sunshine. Clouds will start to increase going into the evening and overnight hours, but precipitation is not expected other than maybe some sprinkles. By sunrise tomorrow, increasing moisture should allow for widespread showers to develop, with perhaps a few claps of thunder. Overall, lack of substantial instability will prelude thunderstorm chances, but periods of heavy rain are expected over the next several days. A widespread 3-6 inches can be expected, and could cause some flooding problems given the recent snowmelt and moist ground. Temperatures will continue warming throughout the week. 

On New year's eve, a 24 hour lull in the rainfall appears likely. So anybody with plans for New Year's eve should be ok weather wise. By New Year's day, a much warmer airmass will set-up across the mid south, and widespread showers and a few storms are possible. Thankfully, the lack of Instability will prelude severe weather potential with this first system. By Sunday afternoon, the rains should come to an end, and we get another lull in the action until Monday. 

On Monday, as the original trough exits the area, model guidance lifts the main trough well to our northwest and even points to a strong vort lobe rotating across the Southern plains. This would provide ample large scale ascent, very strong deep layer vertical shear. Current guidance suggests dewpoints in the 60s and perhaps near 70 in spots, which would provide a very unstable airmass, that would be highly supportive of severe weather Monday afternoon. The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS ensembles all indicate at least 20-30 probabilities of 500 j/kg of CAPE or greater Monday afternoon. CIPS analogs and the CWASP are also hinting at a severe weather episode during this time. The set-up is certainly there for severe weather, but model guidance is still in disagreement on specific timing issues, which could make or break the severe threat for our area. 

Beyond Monday, temperatures look to remain near normal and dry conditions for late week next week as high pressure builds in. 


CONFIDENCE: 

High confidence on all elements. 

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