Daily Blog - January 15, 2023

 Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page

8:39 pm CST Sunday January 15, 2023

SHORT TERM: (Now through Tuesday night)

Currently, a peaceful night of weather is underway in the mid south. Temperatures are in the 50s with clear skies area wide. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the night ahead of a quick moving storm system which expected to impact our area tomorrow. Scattered showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are expected tomorrow into Tuesday morning. The good news is, the lack of instability and favorable thermodynamic support will keep any severe weather threat generally nil. 


LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Saturday)

The long term forecast starts off with an active day of weather for Wednesday. Our next storm system is poised to impact the entire area Wednesday afternoon with widespread showers and Thunderstorms. A new surface low is expected to develop in or around the ARKLATEX and track northeastward throughout the day Wednesday. An increasingly moist airmass is expected to overflow the mid south in advance of a strong cold front. This could set the stage for severe weather in our area. As is usually the case in the winter months, Instability is the primary limiting factor. The NAM model is the most aggressive which brings 65F dewpoints into our area, while the other forecast models struggle to bring a few hundred J/KG of CAPE into the area. With the NAM being the outlier for now, decided to lean with the lacking instability solutions. Shear profiles look to be very conducive for severe storms with strong low level wind shear. 0-6km bulk shear is between 60 and 70 knots and 0-1km SRH values greater than 200m2/s2. The question will undoubtedly will be the degree of Instability. If the greater amount of Instability can be realized, as depicted by the NAM forecast model, a dangerous severe weather event could unfold across the area. Will continue to monitor this situation as the event draws closer. 

Beyond Wednesday, dry and seasonable weather will prevail through at the least the first half of the weekend. Our next system appears to approach the area early next week. Too soon to be real specific but will monitor forecast trends. 


CONFIDENCE:

Low confidence on severe weather, high confidence on all other elements 

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