Daily Blog: January 9th

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page 

12:12 pm CST Monday January 9, 2023 


Currently, clear skies and very light winds are prevailing across the mid south and will continue to prevail for the next couple of days. Expect highs at or just below average today and tomorrow. On Wednesday, temperatures will make a big jump into the upper 60s. Increasing clouds will prevail and winds should also increase on Wednesday ahead of our next big weather maker. 

Wednesday night, a potent mid level trough will race into the area. A surface low pressure will track northeast of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a trailing cold front moving through the mid south. Current model guidance continues to have a number of disagreements with respects to timing and the finer details. The GFS remains the more aggressive with bring a lot of low level moisture and mid 60 dewpoints into the area. Other models are less aggressive with the moisture return. Main limiting factors includes the quality of low level moisture and the historically unfavorable time of day in which storms would be moving in. On the other hand, the amount of deep layer shear, strong height falls, and steep lapse rates are more than adequate to pose a organized severe threat Wednesday night into Thursday Morning. Currently, CIPS analogs (logs that give us a good idea of the atmospheric profile) suggest marginal chances of severe weather in our region during this time frame. Given the already veered wind profiles, a QLCS (line) event would be more likely with winds being the primary hazard if severe convection can initiate. At this point, the main window for strong to severe storms appears to be from midnight to noon, with the best chances of severe weather being east of the mid-south where the best Instability is located. 

Colder and breezy conditions can be expected by Thursday afternoon behind the departing system. Temperatures will fall into the 40s,  before moderating again on Sunday. 

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