Daily Blog - Saturday January 28, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page

5:55 am CST Saturday January 28, 2023

Currently, things are clear, calm and quiet across the mid south. Skies will remain clear through the morning, but the clouds will quickly increase this afternoon. Some guidance tries to bring rain into our region by late afternoon, but confidence in this scenario is low, and so will mention a chance of a sprinkle for now and nothing more. The potential for several rounds of wintry weather next week will be the focus of today's forecast issuance. 

Bottom line up front: Impacts from ice accumulations are likely Tuesday morning, and possible Wednesday and Thursday. 

Latest forecast guidance has trended temperatures 1-2 degrees cooler over the past day. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate mostly freezing rain and possibly mixed with sleet along and north of I-40 next week. Rain will develop Monday night to west of our area associated with a low amplitude shortwave passage. Guidance has also sped up this initial round of frozen precip, but not to the extent to remove frozen precip potential from the forecast. 

Given the model differences in timing, and other small scale features, It is too early to pin down any accumulation potential. Model differences with respect to temperatures also persist. The NBM guidance has trended significantly warmer, while the GFS/ECMWF guidance seems reasonable. The Canadian model continues to show far too cold of temperatures with highs each day struggling to get out of the 20s. I went with the GFS/EURO solution as that seems like a reasonable bet for now. 

The Takeaway: There remains a very strong signal for wintry weather for areas along and north of I-40 next week. Impacts are expected, but the extent of the impacts and severity remains highly in question. Stay tuned to later forecast as adjustments and changes are likely. 

CONFIDENCE: 

Medium confidence on all elements. 

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