Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion: February 13, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion

Brady's Weather Page

10:00 am CST Monday February 13, 2023

A tranquil day is on tap for the mid south as surface riding from a 1022 MB high pressure over New Orleans Louisiana sets in. Today should be pleasant with lights winds around 5 to 10 mph, mostly sunny skies, and temperatures at or around 60F. We'll see a warming trend for a few days to come, climbing several degrees by midweek. A strong low pressure system is expected to approach the mid south tomorrow, and will bring not only a chance for some rain showers, but a very strong pressure gradient. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph tomorrow. A wind advisory will be needed at some point in future forecast packages. 

Tomorrow's system looks to occlude long before it reaches the mid south, and resulting in the Instability being "pinched off". As a result, thunder is becoming increasingly unlikely to occur with this system. The aforementioned southerly gradient winds will play a huge role in priming the atmosphere for the second and much more concerning storm system starting Wednesday evening. Incredibly efficient warm air and moisture advection will take place all day tomorrow, surging temperatures into the mid 70s Wednesday afternoon with dewpoints in the 60s later in the afternoon. 

With surface temperatures reaching 70+ degrees and dewpoints potentially on the mid to upper end of the 60s, the resultant Instability could result in a significant severe weather episode for the mid south. Another upper trough with an associated cold front looks to eject from the southern Plains Wednesday evening. Forecast surface analysis continues to place the mid south in an increasingly concerning and open warm sector starting as early as Wednesday afternoon. Both ECMWF and GFS ensembles place the maximum probabilities for surface based CAPE >500 j/kg in the late Wednesday afternoon/evening window. A notable trend: the ECMWF had been consistently faster than the GFS with bringing in storms earlier the past few days. However, in recent model runs, the GFS has flipped, and is now in decent agreement with the Euro forecast model. This trend will need to be monitored, and it could suggest a shift in the severe weather potential for Thursday depending on the timing of convection. 

As the warm front lifts north through the region, strong southwesterly flow aloft will most likely create a decent CAPE/Shear combo in the optimal Wednesday evening through Thursday morning time window. Bulk shear on the order of 60 knots and very robust storm relative helicity shows very strong early indications of severe storm potential. Depending on the orientation of the convection, storm mode may be a little messy with storm mode wavering back and fourth between discrete cells and some linear convection. Without the help of short term Convective allowing models, it is really hard to pinpoint the exact storm mode and therefore, lowering confidence on the smaller scale features of this event. Regardless of mode, all severe weather hazards look to be on the table including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

After the storms clear out Thursday, a more tranquil pattern sets in, with MUCH colder temperatures for the weekend. High pressure will keep us dry for the weekend. Early next week, another storm system could bring the chance for more showers and thunderstorms with temperatures above average. It is way too early to pinpoint if there will be any potential for severe weather with this system. 

CONFIDENCE: 

Medium to high confidence on all elements

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