Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - February 19, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion

Brady's Weather Page

1:07 pm CST Sunday February 19, 2023

SHORT TERM: 

A pleasant day is underway across the Mid South this afternoon. Temperatures at the top of the hour were around 60 degrees in most places. Hope your enjoying the pleasant weather while you can, because a very active week of weather is in store, and it all begins in the short term forecast. Starting with Monday, the majority of the area should remain dry. Cannot totally rule out a passing shower near the TN/KY border as as a fast moving shortwave moves through, but most of us will remain dry, with windy conditions. Temperatures are expected to be quite warm as well with most places in the upper 60s. Tuesday will be mere repeat of Monday. A passing shower is possible, but the same scenario exists. The 7 day forecast reflects most areas remaining dry and Windy on both days with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s areawide. 

LONG TERM: 

Wednesday will be a very warm day across the mid south with several temperatures records at the risk of being tied or even broken. Temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 70s, perhaps a few places hitting 80 degrees! As mentioned in prior forecasts, a strong surface low is expected to traverse Mexico and move up into the Mid South by mid afternoon Wednesday. Looking at the CIPS analogs from yesterday and today, numbers have increased to a 40-60% chance for severe weather at  any given point in the mid south. It should also be noted that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the Mid South in a 15% categorical risk in their Day 4 Convective outlook, which I agree fully with at this time. Serious consideration was given to putting severe storms in the 7 day forecast in this forecast package, however given the high amount of uncertainty with respects to impacts and other small scale features, I opted not to add such inclusion at this time. If the current trends continue, an inclusion will be necessary in tomorrow's forecast package. At the current time, severe weather is looking increasingly likely on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with all modes of severe weather possible. Forecast guidance is suggesting that very marginal amounts of CAPE will be in place, however I am having a hard time believing the low end CAPE values considering the warm airmass that will already be in place. 

Beyond Wednesday, a drier pattern appears to emerge for a few days, before another system traverses its way into the mid south, bringing our next chance of showers and perhaps Thunderstorms by Sunday. 

CONFIDENCE: 

Medium confidence in severe weather, high confidence on all other elements

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