Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - February 20, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion

Brady's Weather Page

1:38 pm CST Monday February 20, 2023

SHORT TERM:

The short term forecast remains a non-eventful one for the most part. Current radar analysis shows no rain, with lots of sunshine. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s for everyone. This warming trend will continue for the next couple of days as a southerly flow aloft sets in. Tuesday looks to be a rinse and repeat of today, but with windier conditions and increasing clouds in the afternoon. Rain chances look very minimal Tuesday, though a passing shower cannot totally be ruled out given the amount of moisture present in the atmosphere 

LONG TERM: 

An active long term period is upon us! Starting off with Wednesday, It will be a very very (use your favorite adjective!) warm day across the Mid South. Temperatures will surge into the Mid 70s to possibly near 80 in most places. These warm, spring like temperatures will challenge all time records for the month if the forecast verifies, which there is a high expectation of that. As with any spring like pattern, Mother nature does not want to cooperate with us, as a potent shortwave trough is poised to move through the mid south. This is likely to bring the potential for strong to severe storms into the Mid South. There remains a high amount of uncertainty with regards to the magnitude of the event and the amount of Instability. Taking a look at some of the parameters, the wind fields with this system are off the charts, while CAPE appears to be between 200-500 j/kg on any given model. Ultimately, the amount of CAPE will determine the severity of this severe weather threat. It should be noted that the warm air being in place ahead of this system, the long term guidance is likely underdoing the amount of Instability, so changes to this forecast are very likely as the event draws closer. Stay tuned! 

Beyond Thursday, noticeably cooler temperatures will arrive for Friday and even Saturday. Model guidance is trying to hint at the potential for a few rain showers Friday - Sunday, however confidence in this scenario is low, so for now, have introduced low percentages of precipitation through this time period. By early next week, there are some signals that more showers and thunderstorms may develop over a broad, wide open warm sector, which mid south is included in. Severe weather may ultimately become a player in early next week's forecast, but significant discrepancies in the long range guidance preludes anything more than a mention for now. 

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