Daily Blog and Forecast - February 12, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion

Brady's Weather Page

3:40 pm CST Sunday February 12, 2023

Pleasant conditions across the Mid-South this afternoon. A significant amount of dry air has settled over the region causing dewpoints to drop into the teens, but temperatures are verily mild with temps in the mid 50s to near 60 areawide. Tranquil weather is expected to continue for one more day across the area, before a series of storm systems could bring rain, and severe thunderstorms to the area. The severe weather threat for Wednesday PM - Thursday morning will be the main topic of discussion in today's forecast issuance. 

The first of two storm systems is expected to arrive on Tuesday. The first half of Tuesday is expected to be dry. By the afternoon, a weak cold front is expected to move through the area, bringing widespread rain showers. Thunderstorms are not expected with this initial round of rain as Instability looks very minimal at best. The greater for Tuesday will be the tight pressure gradient. Guidance is suggesting winds could be in excess of 20-30 mph sustained, with gusts easily exceeding 40 MPH. This certainly is cause for concern with all the rain we have had lately. Would not be surprised to see a Wind Advisory issued for Tuesday, as a result of these strong winds. The cold front will move east late Tuesday, with a drier pattern setting in for Tuesday night and Wednesday. 

On Wednesday, a warm front is expected to surge northward through the Mid South, resulting in temperatures skyrocketing into the low to mid 70s by Wednesday afternoon. Strong warm air advection is expected to occur, and as a result, weak Instability may develop as early as Wednesday afternoon. Thus, a few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon through sunset. Severe weather may not be a problem during this time frame as the more favorable kinematics and Instability come Wednesday night. Wednesday night into Thursday morning is still the target for severe weather across the region. A favorable Jet Streak will provide strong lift and widespread showers and thunderstorms. Instability is still in some question as the models generally indicate between 500-1000 j/kg across the entire area. Of greater concern is the potential that this instability maybe well underdone, as most of the day Wednesday will be sunny. Regardless, if the amount of Instability pans out or is higher than forecast, strong deep layer shear will support updraft organization and persistent. The 0-6km bulk shear vectors are from the west-southwest late Wednesday night. Storms are currently expected to initialize in the from of supercells, and then should grow upscale into a linear event. Forecast hodographs indicate a significant amount of Storm-Relative Helicity with decent mid level lapse rates (>7 c/km). Of secondary concern is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. PWATS climb to nearly 1.5 -2 inches during this time frame, which is approaching the 97th percentile of climatology. 

The storms should move east of our area by midday Thursday, but some indications suggest storms could linger through the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to fall throughout the day behind the strong cold front, with drier air settling into the area. Much colder temperatures are expected most, if not all of next weekend, with dry weather persisting. 

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