Daily Blog- February 10, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion

Brady's Weather Page

1:53 pm CST Friday February 10, 2023

A little chill is in the air today around the mid south. Current temperatures are mostly in the upper 40s to near 50 areawide. Clouds have remained stubborn today. A northwest flow aloft will allow this trend to continue for the rest of today and tonight. By tomorrow, the sun should make a return. The northwest flow aloft will continue to allow for a chill to remain in the air. Highs and overnight lows will be around average for this time of the year through the weekend. 

By early to middle next week, attention shifts to two potentially impactful storm systems which appear likely to impact the mid south. The first will come on Tuesday, with mostly a rain event. Surface based Instability appears to be near zero, so severe weather is not expected on Tuesday. Some elevated CAPE is showing up on some of the model guidance this afternoon, so a few rumbles of thunder cannot be totally ruled out. Confidence is too low to include the chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for Tuesday, but confidence is very high in rain occurring so the 7 day forecast will reflect the high confidence factor. 

The second system, and the more concerning of the two appears to come in either Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Significant differences exist in the timing of this system, but the broad scale picture is a wave of low pressure will eject out of the southwest United States and move northeastward, taking a track very supportive of severe weather in our neck of the woods. A negative tilt trough is expected to swing through the upper mid-west setting the stage for a wide open Gulf of Mexico streaming up unusually warm moist air ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will challenge records by next Wednesday, potentially reaching as high as 74 or 75 as depicted by some model guidance. All these features will put the mid south in an extremely conducive position  for severe weather. Current parameters are very aggressive with the magnitude of this severe weather event. It is worth noting we are still 5 days out, and things can change between now and then, trying to figure impacts and exact timing is far from being possible at this point. The bottom line: Severe weather appears likely middle of next week, and if things hold as they could, all modes of severe weather including tornadoes could be on the table. Stay tuned! 

CONFIDENCE: 

Medium to high confidence on all elements

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