Daily Blog - February 11, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion

Brady's Weather Page

10:03 am CST Saturday February 11, 2023

Current radar analysis late this morning shows clear, calm and quiet conditions as anticipated at this hour. Temperatures are currently in the 40s but should rise to near 50 degrees by late afternoon. Currently a surface low is sitting over the Florida Panhandle, and is expected to eject northward and bring a possible tornado threat to parts of Florida later today. In our area, this surface low could allow some wrap around rain showers to develop across far southern west Tennessee and north Mississippi. There is very low confidence in this scenario, so the current forecast reflects a dry pattern for today, with mostly sunny skies. These clear, calm, and quiet conditions will continue through the weekend with temperatures moderating to 60 degrees or higher by Monday of next week. 

Beyond Monday, attention shifts to Tuesday where the first of 2 storm systems that will likely impact the mid south. On Tuesday a surface low is expected to track northeast over the Mid West. A trailing cold front behind the surface low will allow showers and maybe a few storms to develop. Current forecast analysis shows little in the way of  SFC CAPE in our area, so the severe weather threat with this first round appears incredibly low. There could be just enough elevated Instability to pop off a couple of booms of Thunder Tuesday evening, but again, confidence is really low, so have left thunder out of the forecast at this point. 

The second storm system will follow on the high heels of Tuesday's system. Bottom line up front: The time is now to prepare for severe weather. Forecast guidance has remained fairly consistent in showing a powerful storm system ejecting out of the Southwest United States late Wednesday Morning. A surface low is expected to develop over Texas and Oklahoma and gradually eject northeastward over Missouri and into the Midwest. Below the surface feature, a wide open gulf of Mexico will stream warm, moist, humid air northward into a large, broad warm sector fueled by attendant high pressure off the coast of Florida. Temperatures Wednesday are expected to soar too or above 70 degrees. By late Wednesday, a cold front develops over OK and TX and begins to move eastward toward the mid south. Model guidance has slowed the progression of this system since yesterday, and as a result our severe weather threat could be firmly a Thursday event. In either case, strong wind fields fueled by the proximity of the surface low, and mid to upper 60 degree dewpoints will create an environment very supportive of strong to severe storms over a large area of the Southeast United States, including right here in the Mid-South. It is still too early to get real specific at this early stage, but their are glaring signs that a significant severe weather or tornado outbreak could unfold across the area middle to late Next Week. Stay tuned to upcoming forecasts and blog posts in the coming days as this event approaches. 

CONFIDENCE: 

Medium confidence on severe weather, high confidence on all other elements

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