Afternoon/Evening Forecast Update: December 5, 2023

 BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE

DECEMBER 5, 2023 @ 4:03 PM CST

KEY MESSAGES: 

1.) Dry conditions expected through the end of the week, with around average temperatures. 

2.) A big storm system moves in Saturday, with potential for severe weather. 


SHORT TERM: 

The short term period has changed little since yesterday. A dry airmass is expected to remain situated directly over the mid south. 1 cold front has moved through this afternoon, with another expected Wednesday night into Thursday. With the dry airmass remaining over the area, no rain or precipitation is expected with either front. About the only thing these two fronts will do is keep temperatures around or just below average climatology. 

LONG TERM: 

Friday will probably be the "pick of the week", as temperatures will rise into the 60s ahead of our next big system. No rain or thunderstorm issues are expected on Friday. Saturday will be a much different story. A big storm system is expected to make its way through the Mid South Saturday afternoon into the evening, and possibly lasting into the overnight hours. A trough is expected to deepen across the south, and move eastward with time through the area. A pacific cold front will trail this trough, which should be the focus point for convective initiation (formation of thunderstorms). With respect to the severe weather aspect, the trend today has been to increase our severe weather chances locally. Both the EURO and the GFS forecast models have increased our Instability, as both models have actually slowed this system down a little. The slowing will allow for more warm moist air to filter into the region. Even so, there are still differences between the two global models and their respective ensembles. Taking a look at the CIPS analogs, the analogs have also increased the severe chances around here. Yesterday, the analogs showed little to no chance of at least 1 severe weather report within 110 km radius of any given point. In today's analogs, they show roughly a 10-20% of 1 severe report within 110 km radius of any given point, and a 15% of severe weather occurring. This would align with the SPC's Day 5 convective outlook which maintains a 15% contour just to our south and west. I would expect this 15% to get expanded into our area tomorrow morning with the Day 4 outlook. At this time, our severe threat Saturday looks to be an "all hazards" threat with tornadoes and damaging winds as the primary threat. Wind fields will be extreme, and should the increased instability tap into some of that wind shear, the threat for a few stronger tornadoes may increase also.  All this being said, Saturday is a day to watch. The best thing to do now is begin preparations for a potential severe weather event. Review your severe weather safety plan, and ensure your ways of receiving weather alerts are working properly and audible. 

Also as a little side note, if the current trends continue with the signal for increasing severe weather potential, A First alert weather day could become required as the event draws closer. 

Beyond the weekend, tranquil conditions return for next week, with temperatures slightly below average. 

CONFIDENCE: 

High confidence on all elements 

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