Weather Forecast and Discussion: December 6th, 2023

 BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE

DECEMBER 6, 2023 @ 2:09 PM CST 

KEY MESSAGES: 

1.) Dry, but chilly weather continues through tomorrow. 

2.) A warm up begins on Friday, with continued dry weather. 

3.) Severe weather is possible Saturday and Saturday night, with all severe hazards possible. 

4.) Saturday is now a *FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY* 

SHORT TERM: 

A chilly day is in progress around the Mid South. Latest radar shows nothing in the way of precipitation. Temperatures at this hour are in the mid to upper 40s area wide. Expect another chilly day, with temperatures inching closer to 50 for tomorrow. A cold front will move through late tonight and tomorrow morning, which will keep these temperatures on the low side for 1 more day. On Friday, a warm up begins as a southerly flow begins to drive warm moist air out of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of our next storm system. 

LONG TERM: 

The long term forecast picks up with Saturday morning. At the beginning of the period, relatively tranquil conditions are expected areawide. However, an upper trough is expected to dig southward on Friday and Saturday. Ahead of this feature, a south to southwest flow aloft will prevail, which will help to tighten the pressure gradient. This trough will consist of two low pressure systems -- one over the upper Midwest region, and another over the Red River Valley. By daybreak, a strong diffluent flow will extend over the Mid South, overspread a 50 knot low level jet. This will support numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, which should be elevated initially. 

The most recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF forecast models depict higher surface temperatures and dewpoints on Saturday -- which translate to higher Instability than what has been previously forecast. As such, it is becoming increasingly possible that afternoon convection could become surface based, as mixed layer CAPE of 750-1000 j/kg is evident on both of the global models. In addition, what ever convection is able to become surface based, it may have access to strongly veered vertical and wind profiles up to the 850 mb layer. This would suggest an increasing damaging wind and tornado threat across the region. Steep height falls should maintain strong forcing along the front, with a strongly forced QLCS likely to form. Even with the increased Instability, it is possible that this Instability is offset by pre-frontal showers, which would lower our severe chances. However, we cannot bank on this happening. With the overall increased confidence, concern is growing for severe weather happening over the area, so have decided to go ahead and issue a First Alert Weather Day for Saturday. 

For Sunday and beyond, the models have flipped from 24 hours ago on their respective solutions. Most models now show Sunday being a dry day across the area. This leads to increased confidence and probability of no rain for Sunday. However, will maintain at least a slight chance of rain for consistency purposes, and will wait for further guidance before removing "chance" wording from the forecast. Next Monday through Wednesday looks dry and mild as the Mid South is under a zonal flow aloft. 

CONFIDENCE: 

Low confidence in severe wx, high confidence on all other elements

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