Weather Forecast and Discussion -- December 8, 2023

 BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE 

DECEMBER 8, 2023 @ 2:20 PM CST

KEY MESSAGES: 

1.) Severe Thunderstorms are likely on Saturday with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. 

2.) Drier conditions expected for Sunday. 

3.) Expect near normal temperatures for much of the forecast period. 


SHORT TERM: 

The main topic of discussion in today's forecast issuance will be the severe potential for tomorrow.  However, we will get into that in a moment. Currently, temperatures are quite nice outside. Temperatures area wide are in the 60s for most places, but a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will begin to pickup later today and tonight as a strong southerly begins to set in. This southerly flow is what will drive tomorrow's severe weather threat. No severe weather problems are expected tonight. 

Regarding tomorrow's severe weather potential, the bottom line up front is that everyone should have more than 1 way of receiving warnings tomorrow and that you should have a severe weather safety plan in place, so that if and when you are put under a warning, you can implement that plan. Tomorrow morning, there may be a few scattered showers around the area. Not everyone will see rain tomorrow morning. The chances of severe weather tomorrow morning are quite low as instability is limited until afternoon. By tomorrow afternoon, temperatures and dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 60s, which is expected to support surface based convection. Storms may be discrete initially, which would locally enhance the tornado threat. Storms should quickly grow upscale into a line of storms. Current models suggest between 500-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE will be present, along with 50 knots of wind shear. These parameters should be sufficient to support a damaging wind threat, and the threat for a few tornadoes. The tornado threat will be somewhat conditional on just how much fuel. If MUCAPE is greater than 1000 j/kg across the entire area, this could enhance the tornado threat areawide. Forecast trends will be monitored throughout the evening and overnight for any changes in the severe threats for tomorrow. 


Beyond tomorrow, things dry out thanks to a zonal flow pattern. Long term guidance is suggesting that another storm system may enter the area next weekend sometime. Details are very murky this far out, so stay tuned! 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - March 1st

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:03 pm CST March 1, 2023 *** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY *** Bottom Line up front: Everybody should have multiple ways of receiving warnings over the next 24-30 hours. Everybody should also know their severe weather safety plan, and enact that plan when warnings are issued.  SHORT TERM :  Currently, a few light rain showers are being observed over portions of Tipton County Tennessee at this hour, but other than that, conditions are clear, calm and quiet for now. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s everywhere, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. It feels like a severe weather day around the mid south. The Storm Prediction center has placed an enhanced risk of severe weather across the southern half of West Tennessee, and a slight risk everywhere else. A lot of moisture, high CAPE, and decent height falls will probably contribute to some severe storms across the area. All modes of severe will be possible with hail and win...
Read more

DAILY BLOG - Discussion for December 22, 2022

 This is your daily forecast for December 22, 202 🚨  Dangerous weather expected for the mid south this afternoon. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions  🚨 Currently, radar is showing some light rain or flurries around West Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. This may not be making it all the way to the surface. This is only an appetizer as to what is coming later today. Currently, temperatures are in the 40s everywhere as expected. The inbound arctic air and snow will be the heavyweight of today's forecast issuance.  Model guidance continues to be in strong agreement with the arrival of the arctic cold front by mid afternoon across the northern sections of the area. Precipitation is expected to develop along the front initially as rain, but will quickly transition to snow as the temperatures plunges. Large scale upper forcing will create quite a bit of lift, especially north of I-40. This creates a very conducive environment to support accumulating snowfa...
Read more

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion -- March 2, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:18 pm CST Thursday March 2, 2023 SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night) Go Outside. Enjoy this nice weather while you can. In just a few short hours... It won't be like this, not until Saturday morning anyway. It would be an understatement to say that we are in the "Calm before the storm"...and that's quite literally. We have a smorgasbord of weather in the short term so let's dive in.  Let's start with tonight: As I type this, an already intense closed low system has dug into northern Mexico. This system will eject northeastward over the next few hours, and it is does, It is going to bring a severe weather outbreak to portions of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. It's going to be a long night for them. As for us, we are also in for a long night, as a warm front is going to lift north through the region. Storms are expected to develop along this warm front and some of them could become severe w...
Read more