Weather Forecast Discussion: December 4, 2023

 Brady's Weather Page, 

December 4, 2023 @ 1:00 pm CST 


KEY MESSAGES:

1.) Generally quiet weather for the next few days across the area

2.) A couple of fronts move through around Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. 

3.) A big storm system likely to impact the area going into the Weekend. 

.DISCUSSION...

Bengin weather will remain over the Mid South through late week. There will be a couple of dry fronts that will move through the region, but no rainfall is expected as very dry air dominates our region. Temperatures each day this week will remain near normal thanks to the fronts with highs in the 50s to near 60, and lows in the 30s and 40s. 

By Saturday morning, a potent shortwave will dive down out of the Four Corners Region. Simultaneously, a surface low will develop along the cold front in northeast Texas and track into the ArkLaTex/Mid South Region by Saturday morning. Downstream, a warm front will begin to lift northward into the Lower Mississippi river valley. It appears that the Mid South could already be warm sectored as early as Saturday morning, as most guidance indicates dewpoints already in the upper 50s to low 60s. Synoptic models are generating between 300 and 600 j/kg of MUCAPE across the Mid South by 2:00 pm Saturday. Dynamics are quite healthy as well, as a 120 knot jet streak moves overhead. Up to 50 knots of bulk shear will be on tap with SRH values in excess of 200 m2/s2 as well. 

While the ingredients for severe weather appear to overlap, models continue to slightly differ with respect to the evolution of the trough as it moves in Saturday afternoon and evening. The position of the trough will affect the ultimate position of a surface low and ultimately the specific type of convective forcing. Even with uncertainty remaining with respect to key surface features, a general severe threat does appear to be materializing for at least some parts of the Mid South. Right now, the current SPC Day 6 outlook has the 15% (slight risk) just to the southwest of Memphis, but given the recent trends in the guidance, I would be shocked if this risk was not expanded to include the rest of the Mid South. The risk for severe storms could extend into the overnight hours Saturday night as the front does not officially move through until late Saturday night. 

Showers look likely going into Sunday morning as the main trough pivots across the area. Behind the trough, dry weather prevails, and a northwest flow aloft sets up over the region, creating near normal temperatures for all. 

CONFIDENCE: 

Low confidence in severe storms, high confidence on all other elements.


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - March 1st

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:03 pm CST March 1, 2023 *** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY *** Bottom Line up front: Everybody should have multiple ways of receiving warnings over the next 24-30 hours. Everybody should also know their severe weather safety plan, and enact that plan when warnings are issued.  SHORT TERM :  Currently, a few light rain showers are being observed over portions of Tipton County Tennessee at this hour, but other than that, conditions are clear, calm and quiet for now. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s everywhere, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. It feels like a severe weather day around the mid south. The Storm Prediction center has placed an enhanced risk of severe weather across the southern half of West Tennessee, and a slight risk everywhere else. A lot of moisture, high CAPE, and decent height falls will probably contribute to some severe storms across the area. All modes of severe will be possible with hail and win...
Read more

DAILY BLOG - Discussion for December 22, 2022

 This is your daily forecast for December 22, 202 🚨  Dangerous weather expected for the mid south this afternoon. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions  🚨 Currently, radar is showing some light rain or flurries around West Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. This may not be making it all the way to the surface. This is only an appetizer as to what is coming later today. Currently, temperatures are in the 40s everywhere as expected. The inbound arctic air and snow will be the heavyweight of today's forecast issuance.  Model guidance continues to be in strong agreement with the arrival of the arctic cold front by mid afternoon across the northern sections of the area. Precipitation is expected to develop along the front initially as rain, but will quickly transition to snow as the temperatures plunges. Large scale upper forcing will create quite a bit of lift, especially north of I-40. This creates a very conducive environment to support accumulating snowfa...
Read more

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion -- March 2, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:18 pm CST Thursday March 2, 2023 SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night) Go Outside. Enjoy this nice weather while you can. In just a few short hours... It won't be like this, not until Saturday morning anyway. It would be an understatement to say that we are in the "Calm before the storm"...and that's quite literally. We have a smorgasbord of weather in the short term so let's dive in.  Let's start with tonight: As I type this, an already intense closed low system has dug into northern Mexico. This system will eject northeastward over the next few hours, and it is does, It is going to bring a severe weather outbreak to portions of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. It's going to be a long night for them. As for us, we are also in for a long night, as a warm front is going to lift north through the region. Storms are expected to develop along this warm front and some of them could become severe w...
Read more