Weather Forecast Discussion: December 5, 2023

 Brady's Weather Page                                                                                                                                         December 5, 2023 @ 7:31 am 

KEY MESSAGES:                   

1.) Dry conditions continue through Friday, with around or just slightly below average temperatures. 

2.) A big storm system will impact the mid south this weekend, bringing rain and storms.

 3.) Benign weather returns by early next week with temperatures near average. 

SHORT TERM: 

The short term forecast has remained virtually unchanged since yesterday. Dare I say that quiet weather will continue through Friday. This will be largely due to a large, but very dry airmass that is basically sitting over our area. Temperatures will remain near or just slightly below average, with highs in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the 30s and 40s. 

LONG TERM: 

The long term forecast on the other hand, things get dicey around here. We pick things up with Saturday. A large upper trough, coming out of the Rocky Mountains begins to move into the Mid South. Ahead of this feature, showers will overspread the area early in the day on Saturday. A pacific cold front will move through the area, which will be the focus point of where showers and thunderstorms will be greater. Regarding the severe weather threat locally, at this time, the SPC continues to have a 15% risk just to our south over southern AR, Louisiana, East Texas, and Western Mississippi. This is the area where the latest models suggest Instability will be highest. However, looking at the models, there are still some pretty stout differences between the main 2 synoptic models -- the GFS and the EURO. The GFS forecast model brings the severe weather way further north, over our area. If the GFS were to verify, this would put an all hazards severe weather outbreak over our area, with wind damage, tornadoes, and isolated large hail all possible. The European forecast model keeps the bulk of the severe weather just to our south. However, it should be noted that it does not take a lot of Instability this time of the year to get severe weather, and we must keep a careful eye on this, because if both of the aforementioned models begin to show higher Instability in our area, the wind fields are off the charts, which means tornadoes would be a huge concern. All that aside, we are still around 5 days out from this potential event, so we can't put much stock into the models just yet. 

By sunday, the storms exit our area. Lingering showers could continue through early Sunday afternoon before drying out. Monday looks cooler with temperatures likely not getting much above 50 for highs. Looking ahead, models are trying to depict another storm system in about 10-13 days from now. stay tuned! 

CONFIDENCE: 

High confidence on all elements 

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