PM Weather Forecast and Discussion - January 8, 2024

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE

Monday January 8, 2024, 3:49 pm 

KEY MESSAGES: 

1.) A potent storm system will bring widespread, soaking rain and strong gusty winds to the region tonight into tomorrow. Potential is there for a quick changeover to non-impactful snow, mainly near the TN river. 

2.) Another storm arrives Thursday night and Friday night with more widespread rain, and possibly gusty winds. Too early to determine if wintry weather will be a possibility. 

3.) Arctic air plunges into the area Friday night into Saturday morning, with the potential for another storm in our neck of the woods on Monday of next week. Potential is there for accumulating snowfall. 

SHORT TERM: 

The short term forecast has largely remain unchanged. Widespread rain is overspreading the entire area at this hour, and the winds are slowly increasing. Expect this trend to continue for the next several hours. The winds will be strongest overnight tonight when gusts could exceed 40-50 mph in our area! As a result, a Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire area through 12:00 am Wednesday morning. As the rain moves out early tomorrow, there is some potential for this rain to changeover to snow for a brief of time near the TN river. At this point, temperatures will be too warm for anything impactful, as such confidence in such a scenario remains quite low. After this first system moves out, we will have about 36 hours of tranquil conditions before the second system moves in Thursday night and Friday. More details about this in the long term discussion below! 

LONG TERM: 

Starting off with Thursday night and Friday, this second system is largely expected to take a similar track as the first, but perhaps could be slightly stronger and maybe a little further south. That said, the impacts will likely be the same as with the first one. Another 988-995mb surface low is expected to track across the MS river, over the MO bootheel. This should create yet another tight pressure gradient with winds gusting to 35-40 mph across the entire area. Would not be surprised to see another wind advisory issued for Friday. The wind threat aside, the rain is a solid bet, with most guidance suggesting another 1-2 inches of rain. Regarding the potential for severe weather, the SPC has highlighted a portion of north Mississippi in their Day 5 outlook for severe weather, which I think is spot on. Don't really foresee any severe weather impacts this far north at this time. Depending on how quickly the rain exits, and how quickly the cold air surges in behind this system, can't rule out the potential for a little wintry weather on the back side of this system Friday night. Early indications are, if there was to be a little snow, a dusting at best would fall, and again, mainly near the Tennessee River. 

The weekend is looking quite cold as an arctic airmass featuring dewpoints in the teens arrives in the Mid South. As a matter of fact, this cold airmass is arriving at an interesting time, as Monday into Tuesday is looking quite interesting for the Mid South. Most model guidance depicts a third storm system impacting the Mid south as a surface low tracks out of Northern Louisiana across Central Mississippi into middle or East Tennessee. With cold air already in place, this would certainly be a favorable set-up for a significant winter storm here in the Mid South. With virtually all of the model guidance showing accumulating wintry weather, will go ahead and advertise a potentially high impact winter storm for next Monday and Tuesday, but will hold off on going into any further details on accumulations until we get closer to this potential event. 

CONFIDENCE: 

high confidence on all elements.