Weather Forecast and Discussion: January 7, 2024

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE

SUNDAY JANUARY 7, 2024 @ 3:36 PM

KEY MESSGAES:

- Big Storm System comes through Monday afternoon through Tuesday with strong gusty winds and some much needed rain

- Another system will move through on Friday and looks to be a colder system. Uncertain on precipitation types, track, and timing. 

- Arctic airmass settles in next weekend, with another storm system early next week. 

SHORT TERM: (Now through Thursday)

Mostly clear skies and pleasant temperatures near 50 degrees is underway across the mid-south. Unfortunately, this benign stretch of weather will not last for about another 24 hours, as our next weather maker is set to arrive tomorrow night, with much needed rain, and very gusty winds. A colorado low is expected to eject from the four coroners region sometime late this afternoon and evening. During its journey across the plains, guidance is in fairly good agreement that this low will deepen to or near 990mb by Tuesday morning. 

The overall forecast has not changed much. Recent guidance has shifted the track of the surface low slightly further north, which will probably negate any potential for wintry weather for our area locally. The EURO model is the only model that paints wintry weather, and that paints a dusting for far, far northern West Tennessee, near the KY border. This is the big outlier, and will leave any mention of wintry weather out of the forecast for now. One thing is set and stone, our area will receive much needed 1-2 inches of rain. The more impactful hazard with this system will be a very tight pressure gradient which will lead to some strong winds. A Wind Advisory has been hoisted for all of West Tennessee and the adjacent areas for tomorrow night and Tuesday. All of the available guidance has wind gusts exceeding 40 mph, pushing 50 mph for a solid 3 - 6 hour time window. If this were to occur, power outages, and some damage to structures would be possible. The uncertainty with this is...will those winds be able to mix all the way down to the surface? This we won't know until tomorrow, as there is a pretty stout inversion (cap) that pretty close to the surface that could impede the winds mixing all the way down. Nonetheless, strong winds are a bet, and will meet advisory criteria. After Tuesday, a brief  36 hour lull takes place over the area before our next system arrives. 

LONG TERM: (Friday and beyond)

On Friday, another deep low pressure of similar structure will approach the mid South late Thursday evening, putting us right back in a wet and windy pattern. Global models are struggling to resolve the track of this feature, which will dictate the precip. type, and how strong winds will be. The GFS model takes a more southerly track, which explains its ensemble painting 2-4 inches of snow along and north of I-40 by Saturday afternoon. Obviously, this is an outlier as the CMC, and Euro ensembles agree on less than an inch of snow with this weekend system. This just something to watch for now. 

Long range guidance is really highlighting the potential for very cold arctic air building in late next weekend. This, in conjunction with elevated winds from the influence of a deep surface low will allow wind chills to drop into the teens if not lower for everybody. BRRR!! The 6-10 day CPC temperature outlook highlights this potential very well with a 70-80% of below average temperatures. 

Beyond next weekend, another storm system looks to be taking aim at the Mid South. With arctic air likely in place by early next week, an impactful wintry weather event looks to be on the table for the Mid South. Something to watch for now! 

CONFIDENCE: 

Medium confidence on wind/precip. High confidence on all other aspects.