Weather forecast and discussion: January 11, 2024

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE
THURSDAY JANUARY 11, 2024 @ 12:47 PM 

KEY MESSAGES: 
1.) Strong to potentially damaging gradient wind gusts (45-60 mph) are expected tonight into tomorrow, along with heavy rain, and the potential for a few storms mainly Friday AM. 

2.) Still tracking the potential for accumulating snow Sunday into Monday next week. It remains too early to be specific with any accumulation potential. 

3.) A blast of arctic air invades the region beginning tomorrow night, with the coldest air filtering in Monday PM. Widespread wind chills of -15 to - 24 are expected. 

SHORT TERM: 
A very active short and long term forecast today! Midday GOES water vapor shows an upper low pressure over Arizona at this hour. This feature will quickly move into the southern plains by midnight tonight. Strongly diffluent flow will overspread the Mid South prior to sunrise, before a 991 mb surface low tracks directly overhead, while deepening to 983 mb. By 6 am, there should be a warm front over Arklamiss, which will continue to move northward throughout the morning. As the warm front moves north, expect a few storms to develop, and some of which could be strong to severe Friday morning. Taking a look at the models, modest CAPE, but very high wind shear suggest a classic high shear/low CAPE set-up for the area. In any case, there is the potential for a few damaging wind gusts, and maybe a tornado or two in the southern half of the Mid South. This potential is highlighted well by the Storm Prediction Center's Day 2 Convective outlook, which highlights areas along and south of I-40 in West Tennessee in a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms. 

Perhaps the more consequential weather hazard for Friday will be the threat for a widespread, potentially damaging strong wind threat associated with the strong low level pressure gradient. HREF and GFS ensemble mean depicts wind gusts approaching 55-60 mph along and east of the MS river. Following the frontal passage, the wind gusts will likely remain quite strong, at a still impressive 45-50 mph gusts. I've got suspicions that the winds may over-achieve a little bit, which would put the wind gusts over the 60 mph threshold for a High wind Warning. At this point, NWS settled with a high end Wind Advisory, which I think will get upgraded to a High wind warning at some point. Saturday, thing dry out and take a calmer stance, but this doesn't last long, as clouds increase on Sunday. 

LONG TERM: 
Kicking things off with Sunday afternoon, our next system will be on the approach, and by Sunday night, accumulating snowfall is expected to blanket the Mid South. Snow will develop along a 135 knot jet streak, extending from the Red River Valley into the Mid South. By late Sunday evening, this jet streak will intensify to 160 knots over the Ohio Valley, with the right entrance region setting up over the Mid South. Despite Modest QPF with this system, the combination of saturated Dendritic layer (-12 to -18C) aloft and the presence of warm air aloft, and high end snow to liquid ratios, this should lead to efficient snow production Sunday along and north of I-40.  At this time, it remains too soon to go into specifics with accumulations, but the bottom line is accumulating snow is very likely Sunday night into Monday, and travel impacts are expected as arctic air will be firmly in place, allowing the ground temperatures at or below freezing when precipitation starts. 

By Monday night, polar air filters into the region, dropping temperatures into the single digits with some locations flirting with zero degrees or lower. Factoring in the wind, wind chills could easily drop to -15 degrees or lower across a good chunk of the area. A wind chill advisory is a slam dunk, but can't rule out we end up needing a Wind Chill Warning as time gets closer. 

CONFIDENCE: 
High confidence on all elements. 

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