Weather Forecast and Discussion - January 9, 2024

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE
Tuesday January 9, 2024 @ 12:58 pm

KEY MESSAGES: 
1.) A brief 36 hour lull is expected between now and Thursday night. 

2.) A second storm system arrives Friday morning with more rain and gusty winds. There could be some wintry weather on the backside of this system, but no impactful accumulation is expected. 

3.) Dangerously cold temperatures is expected late this weekend into early next week, which could set the stage for a significant winter storm on or around MLK day. 

SHORT TERM: 
Compared to 24 hours ago, the short term forecast is rather tranquil (for now)! The rain has moved east out of our area, but winds will remain gusty through about the first half of the overnight before slowly calming down. Temperatures are chilly, as most locations are sitting in the 40s at this hour. For the next 36 hours or so, our area will be "in between" storm systems, with relatively tranquil weather expected through Thursday night. Temperatures will rise into the 40s on both Wednesday and Thursday, with Thursday featuring increasing cloud cover. 

LONG TERM: 
A very busy long term forecast in store for us so let's just dig right in. We'll kick things off with Thursday night as our second storm system approaches the area. Much like the first, rain and gusty winds will be the main hazards with this second storm system. An area of low pressure will track either very close or right over the Mid South, which will lead to a tightening pressure gradient once again. I would expect more wind advisories to be issued during the Thursday night - Friday timeframe. Regarding the rain, expect another 1-2 inches of beneficial rain. Some models are trying to hint at the cold air moving in faster than some of the previous models have shown, which would increase our chances for wintry weather. At this time, I cannot rule out isolated snow showers on the back side of this system Friday night as arctic air plunges into the Mid South. With ground temperatures well above freezing, any accumulation would be a dusting at best, and likely confined to grassy surfaces. 

By Saturday and Sunday, the arctic air is firmly in place with daytime temperatures barely reaching above freezing and overnight lows in the teens on both nights. By Sunday night into Monday, our next storm system begins to come into the picture. This one could be the more interesting for our area, as arctic air will already be in place, which means any precipitation that falls from this storm will fall in the form of frozen precipitation. Even more interesting to this forecast, every long range forecast model has what would be a significant winter storm over the Mid South on Monday and Tuesday. The pattern will strongly favor such an event, so model trends will need to be watched closely in the coming days. With the consistency being shown by the models, will advertise accumulating/impactful snowfall for the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. It remains far too early to go into details with accumulation amounts or impacts. 

Of more certainty however will be the polar air that plunges into the region behind this system. Temperatures may struggle to reach 10 degrees for highs, and overnight lows could very well fall well below zero with wind chills reaching the dangerous to borderline "unheard of" territory for around here! 

CONFIDENCE...
Low confidence on wintry precipitation in short term. 
Medium confidence on wintry precip in long term. 
High confidence on all other elements. 

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