Weather Forecast and Discussion -- PM Update

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE
Tuesday January 9, 2024 7:41 pm 

KEY MESSAGES: 
1.) Tranquil conditions will persist through much of Thursday with temperatures in the 40s for the entire area. 
2.) Friday, our next system rolls in with potentially stronger wind gusts and an additional 1-2 inches of beneficial rain. 
3.) Still Watching the Sunday night - Wednesday time frame of next week for the dual threat of a winter storm, which could get under way Sunday night, and last through Monday and extreme cold temperatures.

SHORT TERM : 
The short term forecast remains largely unchanged from earlier, with the exception of a few snow flurries being reported this evening across NW Tennessee. This is the result of residual moisture on the back side of the departing system interacting with colder air. Do not anticipate any accumulations or impacts with any of these snow flurries. For more information on the short term forecast, please refer to the first blog issued at 12:58 pm. 

LONG TERM: 
A very busy and interesting long term forecast is ahead of us. On Friday, our second of three storm systems will move in from the west, and bring with it another 1-2 inches of rain to our area. This is certainly beneficial as our area remains in major drought from the quiet spell we had back in the fall. The more concerning part of Friday's forecast is the strong ambient wind gusts. Forecast models are hinting at a somewhat stronger surface low moving over the Mid South -- which would ultimately lead to stronger wind gusts. The GFS forecast model remains the less bullish with this scenario and brings wind gusts 45-50 mph, while the NAM forecast model brings 50-55 mph wind gusts, and the European model brings wind gusts over 60 mph! The trend in wind gusts will need to be monitored over the next couple days, as any increase in forecast wind gusts could mean power outages, structural damage, and the eventual need for a First Alert Weather Day on Friday for wind. On Saturday, much colder air filters in behind the system. Highs on Saturday and Sunday may struggle to get above freezing for much of the area! 

Fortunately for snow lovers out there, this is going to set the stage for our third storm system which is now forecast to move in Sunday night. Virtually all of the long range forecast guidance shows a winter storm over the Mid South by early Monday morning, with likely accumulating snowfall. This system will need to monitored in the coming days as the potential for a significant snow event is certainly on the table for our area. Will hold off on going into details with potential accumulations, but accumulations could warrant Winter Storm headlines during this period, and possible First Alert Weather days. 

Of much greater certainty is the surge of polar air that immediately follows our potential winter storm. Serious consideration was given to going ahead and declaring a First Alert Weather day for the Monday - Wednesday timeframe for this extreme cold spell that is headed our way. Decided to forego it at this time due to the potential of the winter storm, which in itself could trigger a First Alert weather day, and so did not want to cause confusion. Nonetheless, brutally cold temperatures are expected during this time frame, with temperatures likely in the single digits, if not lower, with wind chills dropping to 20 below zero, especially north of I-40. This cold is extremely dangerous, and the time is now to start preparing your homes, and vehicles for brutal cold. Make plans to check on people that do not have a reliable heat source, and make plans to have the pets indoors for a prolonged period of time. This could be similar to the epic cold snap we had back in December of 2022, and we should treat this as such! 

CONFIDENCE: 
Medium Confidence on Wintry weather 
High confidence on all other forecast elements. 

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