5/25 Weather Blog

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE
Saturday May 25, 2024 

KEY MESSAGES: 
1.) A very volatile and potentially dangerous severe weather day is shaping up for Sunday. Higher end threats for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be possible. 

2.) In addition to severe weather, intense heavy rainfall may produce localized flooding issues, especially for areas that have recently received rainfall. As such, a flood watch remains in effect through Monday morning. 

3.) A much needed break from the active weather pattern is in store for much of the week next week. Drier and near seasonal temperature should prevail. 

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 6:50 pm CDT Sat May 25, 2024

Enjoy the rest of today and this evening, because we have an active weather day on tap for Sunday. Starting off with this evening, as of 7PM, there is currently nothing on the radar. Temperatures are very warm and it is very muggy outside! Enjoy this decent weather while you have it. The main focus for this blog issuance will be the active weather for tomorrow (Sunday). 

Multiple rounds of storms are possible tomorrow. There are some lingering questions as to how each of these rounds evolve. The first round may develop as early as 4-5 am tomorrow. This will be driven by a shortwave trough pushing into the Midwest late tonight. Several short range models depict a cluster/line of storms moving over Missouri and eventually into Western Kentucky. The main question with this round is the southern extent of this cluster of storms. A few models have this completely missing our area, while others have the northern part of West Tennessee being clipped by this round. Regardless of which scenario ends up coming to fruition, severe weather will be possible with this round as dewpoints surge into the low 70s by 7AM. The main threats with this first round will be damaging winds and large hail. 

A secondary round of convection may develop along an outflow boundary from the aforementioned cluster of storms around Mid-afternoon. By this time, hodographs become more favorable for tornadic activity with 0-3km SRH (storm relative helicity) increasing to 250 m2/s2 across portions of West Tennessee. In addition, mid level lapse rates are on the order of 7.5 c/km, which will support strong updrafts, capable of producing large to very large hail. Any storm that develops in this volatile environment will likely be discrete, and will pose the great threat for tornadoes, and perhaps strong tornadoes. Because of this potential, the SPC has expanded the enhanced risk into portions of West Tennessee. I would expect this to be expanded even further if these trends continue. Confidence remains somewhat low for this round due to uncertainties regarding how the morning round evolves. The bottom line: If storms develop, they will be capable of producing all severe hazards. The time to prepare for this potentially dangerous event is NOW! 

A third, and final round of storms will occur late Sunday evening into the overnight hours. Convection will form along a cold front that pushes into southeast Missouri during the evening hours. By the time this reaches the mid south, storms will take on a QLCS structure, in which damaging straight line winds become the main hazard. A few models decrease lapse rates some, which would hamper the large hail threat, however a LLJ (low level jet) will strengthen in conjunction with SRH values remaining in the 150-200 m2/s2 range. This will maintain a threat for tornadoes along this line. By 4AM Monday, the severe treat will wane and dry conditions return on Monday. 

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