BLOG ACTIVATED: 5/23/24 morning weather blog

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE

Thursday May 23, 2024 @ 11:00 am 

KEY MESSAGES: 

1.) An active weather pattern will persist through at least Monday with daily chances of thunderstorms. Confidence on intensity and coverage of storms is verily low 

2.) The great coverage and intensity of thunderstorms is expected to be Friday, but especially on Sunday, where confidence is increasing that a severe weather outbreak will unfold 

3.) By Tuesday, a northwest flow aloft will drive in cooler and drier air, officially ending the unsettled weather pattern locally. 

.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 11:00 am CDT Thu May 23 2024 

The Mid South will remain in a nearly zonal flow aloft through the weekend. This will contribute to a very active period with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be modulated by convection and cloud cover, but should be at or above average through Sunday. For today, a weak frontal boundary is orientated from southwest to northeast across the area. This boundary is causing a round of showers to move through at this hour. No severe weather is expected with this activity, and activity should exit the area by mid afternoon. 

A weak mid/upper level ridge should keep the area relatively quite this afternoon and tonight before yet another disturbance arrives late tonight and tomorrow morning. Showers and storms will be possible associated with this disturbance, and they could develop maybe before sunrise tomorrow morning. Instability and shear will be on the low end of things, so that should keep the severe threat at bay tomorrow morning. Later Friday, most short term guidance shows a line or cluster of storms moving through the area at some point from Midday through the afternoon. Moderate to strong Instability may develop ahead of this line, and wind shear will be increasing through the afternoon. As a result, SPC has our area in a Level 2 slight risk for Friday afternoon and evening. All modes of severe will be possible, with damaging winds and hail as the primary threat, with the tornado threat remaining low. 

On Saturday, a tricky forecast scenario is very much evident. A front is likely to stall out just north of the area as a shortwave ridge builds aloft. South of this front, moderate to strong Instability could develop, but wind shear will be relatively weak once again. This will resemble a warm front, or a surge of warm air advection. If a storm does get going Saturday, it too could be severe, with mainly a hail threat. 

Sunday brings the star of the show...if that is what you want to call it. A concerning forecast is on tap for Sunday afternoon and evening across the region. Most guidance is in agreement with a pretty strong cold front moving into the region Sunday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this front, guidance is generating some really strong Instability, and wind shear. Steep Mid level lapse rates (8.0-8.5 cm) is noted in many of the global/medium range guidance. Large curved hodographs and concerning supercell composites and STP's are noted in atmospheric soundings. All this to say, severe weather is a decent bet, and potentially a significant severe weather outbreak is on tap for Sunday. All forms of severe weather will be possible including tornadoes. 

By next week, there is significant spread in the guidance with respect to the upper pattern, however they all agree that by Tuesday, our weather pattern will finally settle, albeit, short lived. Interestingly, the GFS forecast model brings in one more storm system on Monday afternoon and evening. If this comes to fruition, another round of severe storms would be on tap. Stay tuned.