Evening Blog: 5/23/24

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE
Thursday May 23, 2024 

KEY MESSAGES...
1.) After a relatively quiet Thursday, the weather turns active early tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon. SPC has our region highlighted in a Level 2 slight risk for tomorrow. 

2.) Saturday looks predominately dry, however a couple of strong storms could develop if a cap erodes Saturday afternoon. 

3.) A potential severe weather outbreak is on the way for Sunday and Sunday night. 

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 7:23 pm CDT Thu May 23, 2024 

A relatively calm, and tranquil evening is underway around the Mid South at this hour. Temperatures are currently in the Mid to upper 70s at all reporting stations (Jackson, Union City, Memphis, Dyersburg). Tranquil conditions are expected to continue for several more hours. Heading into tomorrow morning, a series of disturbances are forecast to impact the area. Showers and Thunderstorms are forecast to develop associated with these disturbances. A few of these storms could become strong to severe in the wee morning hours tomorrow, with hail being the primary threat. Friday afternoon, a cold front will approach the Mid South, and additional storms will fire along the front, forming into a line of storms. This line will push through the area tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening with damaging winds, and hail as primary threats with these possible severe storms. 

On Saturday, a cold front is forecast to sort of meander through the area. Short and medium range guidance has struggled how to handle this front, and its potential for any convective initiation. There will be a cap in the atmosphere which may keep convection very sparse at best. However, if the cap breaks, a few strong storms are certainly on the table with large hail and wind damage 

Sunday remains the primary focus in terms of Severe Weather potential. Showers and storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period, but recent forecast guidance has backed off on the idea of early day storms. That is concerning, considering by the afternoon, a volatile environment is going to set-up around the area. Strong Instability between 2500-4000 j/kg, strong wind shear, favorable lift, and steep mid level lapse rates will favor an all hazards severe weather threat including the potential for tornadoes. Curved, loopy hodographs suggests the potential for perhaps a few strong tornadoes. Can't argue with the SPC's level 3/5 risk of severe weather for Sunday. We'll continue to monitor this potential severe outbreak as it draws closer. 

Beyond Sunday, model discrepancies increase drastically, but most guidance is indicating that more tranquil and dryer pattern will emerge on Tuesday. There is some indication that this quiet pattern does not last long, as another trough sets up to our north and west. If this comes to past, more storms would be in the picture by late next week. 

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