DAILY BLOG - December 27, 2022

 Good Morning! This is your daily forecast for December 27, 2022

West Tennessee and the Mid-South is in store for a significant warn up as we move through the work week with rain chances returning by late week and into parts of the weekend. This warm up should result in rapid melting of residual snow and ice and should allow you to put your heavy coats back in the closet -- at least for now! 

Looking at the big picture, a sharp trough is translating across the central United States this morning. The mid south is on the back side of this trough, resulting in a dry northwesterly flow aloft today. This will keep things dry and sunny across the area, with temperatures warming above freezing for the first time in several days. I anticipate dry weather today, and most of tomorrow as a zonal flow with an attendant high pressure builds in. Tomorrow night, a few areas of drizzle are possible, but I do not see any evidence of significant rainfall through the majority of the work week. The majority of the rain and storms should stay to our west as Instability across our area is severely lacking. On the high end, we could see upwards of 2 inches of rain, but that seems a little too high, so for now will keep rainfall amounts less than an inch for all. 

Another opportunity for showers and storms arrives Saturday and Saturday night. This could provide for a little better Instability, but other severe weather parameters look to be marginal at best, so for now will advertise regular thunderstorms with rain amounts maybe an inch in most areas. Beyond Saturday, we see a brief respite from the rain, but I am watching another dynamic, potentially potent storm system for early next week. It's too early to try and figure out the small mesoscale dynamics with this, but this system bears watching as it could have severe weather implications. 


CONFIDENCE:

Low Confidence on Precipitation. 

High confidence on all other elements. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - March 1st

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:03 pm CST March 1, 2023 *** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY *** Bottom Line up front: Everybody should have multiple ways of receiving warnings over the next 24-30 hours. Everybody should also know their severe weather safety plan, and enact that plan when warnings are issued.  SHORT TERM :  Currently, a few light rain showers are being observed over portions of Tipton County Tennessee at this hour, but other than that, conditions are clear, calm and quiet for now. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s everywhere, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. It feels like a severe weather day around the mid south. The Storm Prediction center has placed an enhanced risk of severe weather across the southern half of West Tennessee, and a slight risk everywhere else. A lot of moisture, high CAPE, and decent height falls will probably contribute to some severe storms across the area. All modes of severe will be possible with hail and win...
Read more

DAILY BLOG - Discussion for December 22, 2022

 This is your daily forecast for December 22, 202 🚨  Dangerous weather expected for the mid south this afternoon. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions  🚨 Currently, radar is showing some light rain or flurries around West Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. This may not be making it all the way to the surface. This is only an appetizer as to what is coming later today. Currently, temperatures are in the 40s everywhere as expected. The inbound arctic air and snow will be the heavyweight of today's forecast issuance.  Model guidance continues to be in strong agreement with the arrival of the arctic cold front by mid afternoon across the northern sections of the area. Precipitation is expected to develop along the front initially as rain, but will quickly transition to snow as the temperatures plunges. Large scale upper forcing will create quite a bit of lift, especially north of I-40. This creates a very conducive environment to support accumulating snowfa...
Read more

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion -- March 2, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:18 pm CST Thursday March 2, 2023 SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night) Go Outside. Enjoy this nice weather while you can. In just a few short hours... It won't be like this, not until Saturday morning anyway. It would be an understatement to say that we are in the "Calm before the storm"...and that's quite literally. We have a smorgasbord of weather in the short term so let's dive in.  Let's start with tonight: As I type this, an already intense closed low system has dug into northern Mexico. This system will eject northeastward over the next few hours, and it is does, It is going to bring a severe weather outbreak to portions of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. It's going to be a long night for them. As for us, we are also in for a long night, as a warm front is going to lift north through the region. Storms are expected to develop along this warm front and some of them could become severe w...
Read more