Daily Blog: December 30, 2022

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page 

5:50 pm CST Friday December 30, 2022 


SHORT TERM: (Today Through Sunday) 

A slow moving cold front is in the process of moving across the Mid-South tonight and is allowing showers to continue. Expect showers to continue through the night before exiting the area tomorrow morning. There is the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder given the slightly elevated CAPE we have, but the severe weather threat should remain nil. A dry and mild New Year's eve is expected with daytime highs in the 60s. Some locations could even hit 70! This will be in advance of our next system which is discussed in depth below.

LONG TERM: 

At the beginning of the period, a strong upper level trough will make its way inland along the West Coast. Models are in agreement with cyclogenesis as the disturbance moves over the Rocky Mountains, with an occluded low emerging over the Central Plains by Monday. Ahead of this system, a potent southerly flow is poised to advect bucket loads of moisture into the Mid-South. As a result, high humidity for January Standards (60-65 degree dewpoints) is expected, along with numerous showers and Thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could be severe with all modes of severe weather possible. At this time, this looks to be firmly a Monday night event and potentially lasting into Tuesday Morning. Recent forecast guidance remains steady with keeping only a 20-30% of 500 J/KG> of CAPE in the area. That said, this will likely be a classic High Shear/Low Cape set up . The kinematics are very favorable for severe weather with this system, however the environmental parameters are expected to change between now and then so expect changes to the severe weather outlooks and forecast in subsequent blogs. 

Once the severe threat ends Tuesday morning, we should enter a stretch of dry weather, aided by strong high pressure. Temperatures will be at or around normal for the remainder of the long term period. 



CONFIDENCE: 

Medium Confidence on severe weather

High confidence on all other elements

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