Daily Blog - January 17, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page

7:40 am CST Tuesday January 17, 2023

SHORT TERM (Today Through Tomorrow) 

This morning's short term forecast issuance will be dominated by the potential for severe thunderstorms across the region tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center overnight upgraded the entire mid south to a Level 2/5 SLIGHT risk of severe storms. Looking at some of the parameters, Instability still looks quite limited across our region. The more concerning part of this forecast is perhaps the wind energy which is very high tomorrow. Strong amounts of wind energy can sometimes overcome a limited amount of Instability and provide severe weather. The wind dynamics are extremely favorable, as are most of the severe weather parameters tomorrow. If more Instability can be realized than what is expected at the moment, a dangerous severe weather day could be in store for the mid south. This scenario however looks unlikely at this current time, but trends will be monitored very closely. As a precautionary measure, will be issuing a First Alert Weather Day for tomorrow. 

LONG TERM (Thursday - Monday)

On Thursday, we dry out and the sunshine will come in abundance. Cooler temperatures and sunshine is expected through most of the weekend. Our next system will return Sunday into Monday with more rain. Severe weather prospects look low this far out, but will certainly need to be monitored as long term forecast models have been flipping back and fourth with severe weather prospects. 


CONFIDENCE: 

High confidence on all elements

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - March 1st

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:03 pm CST March 1, 2023 *** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY *** Bottom Line up front: Everybody should have multiple ways of receiving warnings over the next 24-30 hours. Everybody should also know their severe weather safety plan, and enact that plan when warnings are issued.  SHORT TERM :  Currently, a few light rain showers are being observed over portions of Tipton County Tennessee at this hour, but other than that, conditions are clear, calm and quiet for now. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s everywhere, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. It feels like a severe weather day around the mid south. The Storm Prediction center has placed an enhanced risk of severe weather across the southern half of West Tennessee, and a slight risk everywhere else. A lot of moisture, high CAPE, and decent height falls will probably contribute to some severe storms across the area. All modes of severe will be possible with hail and win...
Read more

DAILY BLOG - Discussion for December 22, 2022

 This is your daily forecast for December 22, 202 🚨  Dangerous weather expected for the mid south this afternoon. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions  🚨 Currently, radar is showing some light rain or flurries around West Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. This may not be making it all the way to the surface. This is only an appetizer as to what is coming later today. Currently, temperatures are in the 40s everywhere as expected. The inbound arctic air and snow will be the heavyweight of today's forecast issuance.  Model guidance continues to be in strong agreement with the arrival of the arctic cold front by mid afternoon across the northern sections of the area. Precipitation is expected to develop along the front initially as rain, but will quickly transition to snow as the temperatures plunges. Large scale upper forcing will create quite a bit of lift, especially north of I-40. This creates a very conducive environment to support accumulating snowfa...
Read more

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion -- March 2, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:18 pm CST Thursday March 2, 2023 SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night) Go Outside. Enjoy this nice weather while you can. In just a few short hours... It won't be like this, not until Saturday morning anyway. It would be an understatement to say that we are in the "Calm before the storm"...and that's quite literally. We have a smorgasbord of weather in the short term so let's dive in.  Let's start with tonight: As I type this, an already intense closed low system has dug into northern Mexico. This system will eject northeastward over the next few hours, and it is does, It is going to bring a severe weather outbreak to portions of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. It's going to be a long night for them. As for us, we are also in for a long night, as a warm front is going to lift north through the region. Storms are expected to develop along this warm front and some of them could become severe w...
Read more