🚨 Daily Blog - January 18, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page

1:46 am CST Wednesday January 18, 2023

SHORT TERM: (Now through Saturday)

***Severe storms likely this afternoon and evening across the area*** 

Currently, a few showers are beginning to pop up across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel early this morning. Expect showers to increase in coverage over the next few hours as warm air advection from the gulf of Mexico begins. Temperatures at this hour are in the 40s and 50s areawide. Today is expected to be an active weather day across the area. The Storm Prediction Center continues to outline a Level 2 risk of severe weather across virtually all of West Tennessee and the mid south region. Looking at the parameters, not much change has occurred. The Short Term convective allowing models continue to paint aggressively high CAPE values across the region, while the global ensembles continue to show little to no Instability. Wind shear is expected to be exceptionally strong and very supportive for organized convection. Showers and elevated thunderstorms early could act to limit significant destabilization, however warm air advection transport will likely offset this, and allow enough destabilization to form surface based storms. Any storm that does develop in this highly sheared environment and can become surface based will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado. There could be some large hail in any stronger storms that develop, but the large hail threat is seemingly low. 

After today, the remainder of the short term should be clear, calm, and quiet. Temperatures will be notably cooler, but will start to warm around Saturday. Precipitation free conditions are expected to continue on Saturday. 

LONG TERM (Sunday - Tuesday) 

The long term period will feature warming temperatures on Sunday, and another storm system which is progged to move into the area on Monday. There are significant model discrepancies with respect to timing and strength of this system, but this next system looks slightly more concerning than our system we are dealing with today. Will monitor this system over the next several days. 

CONFIDENCE: 

Low Confidence on Long term precip, high confidence on all other elements

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

DAILY BLOG - Discussion for December 22, 2022

 This is your daily forecast for December 22, 202 🚨  Dangerous weather expected for the mid south this afternoon. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions  🚨 Currently, radar is showing some light rain or flurries around West Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. This may not be making it all the way to the surface. This is only an appetizer as to what is coming later today. Currently, temperatures are in the 40s everywhere as expected. The inbound arctic air and snow will be the heavyweight of today's forecast issuance.  Model guidance continues to be in strong agreement with the arrival of the arctic cold front by mid afternoon across the northern sections of the area. Precipitation is expected to develop along the front initially as rain, but will quickly transition to snow as the temperatures plunges. Large scale upper forcing will create quite a bit of lift, especially north of I-40. This creates a very conducive environment to support accumulating snowfa...
Read more

5/26 Updated Blog

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE Sunday May 26, 2024  KEY MESSAGES:  1.) Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are still expected through 2 am tomorrow morning. The initial round is moving through the area as of this writing. 2 more rounds are expected later this afternoon and tonight. All severe hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flooding) are all possible.  2.) Obviously, with the expectation of multiple rounds, a flood threat is likely to develop. A flood watch remains in effect for the entire area.  3.) A much needed break arrives for the bulk of next week with seasonal temperatures, a dryer conditions. .NEW DISCUSSION... Issued 12:22 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Another round of showers and thunderstorms is in the process of moving across parts of West Tennessee. Nothing severe has been noted up to this point, and severe chances with this round are minimal at best. Surface observations over Eastern AR show breaks in clouds, and sunshine in many places. This eff...
Read more

Weather Forecast and Discussion - January 8th, 2024 (AM)

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE  Monday January 8, 2024 @ 7:42 am  KEY MESSAGES :  Strong winds and rain expected later today. A wind advisory is in effect for all of our area through Tuesday night.  Another storm system moves through Friday night into Saturday with more rain and strong winds.  Arctic airmass settles in behind this system, setting the stage for a potentially significant winter storm early next week.  SHORT TERM : (Now through Friday AM)  The calm before the storm -- and quite literally! Currently, conditions are tranquil across the mid south. Temperatures are in the upper 30s and low 40s everywhere. This tranquil weather does not last long, as a significant surface low will move through the Mid South tonight through Tuesday night. The main impact from this will be from very strong ambient wind gusts up to 50 mph across the entire area. The wind advisory was extended by 6 hours, now in effect until midnight Tuesday night. The other impact to this ...
Read more