Daily Blog - January 27, 2023

Daily Blog and Forecast

Brady's Weather Page

12:11 pm CST Friday January 27, 2023

Clear skies, and windy conditions are in place around the mid south this midday. A wind advisory has been issued for parts of West Tennessee (North of I-40) through 5pm this evening. Expect winds to gradually decrease after 5 pm. These clear, calm, and quiet conditions will not last, as our next system is poised to bring rainfall to the area Sunday morning. QPF amounts look to remain generally light Sunday, so flooding should not be a concern. 

On Monday, temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees, and the sun will struggle to peek through the thick cloud deck. I cannot totally rule out peeks of sun, but at the moment, expect mostly cloudy skies Monday. We should remain precipitation free. 

Confidence is increasing with respect to wintry precipitation early to middle of next week. A 1036 MB high will drop down into the Plains during the day Tuesday. Precipitation chances will gradually increase, as warm gulf of Mexico streams moisture northward into our region. The classic cold air "undercutting" warm air will lead to likely freezing rain and sleet by Tuesday afternoon and night. Thermal profiles from the GFS and ECMWF ensembles both indicate freezing rain and sleet with this moisture. Impactful accumulations seem possible as temperatures will drop below freezing Tuesday night. 

Confidence wanes a tad for Wednesday through Thursday timeframe, but the consensus is that perhaps one or more rounds of wintry weather will impact the area. This too could bring impactful accumulations to our area. Some model guidance suggests that during the day Wednesday, precipitation may briefly transition to all rain. This transition would probably not last long if it occurred as temperatures will once again drop below freezing Wednesday night. 

The bottom line: This is not the time to panic. Just watch the weather, and we'll let you know if things trend more significant. Be prepared for icy conditions next week! 


CONFIDENCE: 

Medium confidence on wintry weather,

high confidence on all other elements


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