Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion: February 28

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion

Brady's Weather Page

1:38 pm CST Tuesday February 28, 2023

SHORT TERM: 

The short term forecast this afternoon is...for the most part uneventful. A beautiful day weather wise is underway across the mid south. Temperatures are in the 70s areawide with a breeze in the air. Looking ahead too tomorrow, The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night for areas south of I-40. Looking at the parameters, favorable CAPE and some modest wind shear will probably support a gusty wind/hail threat. Weak SRH values, combined with weak height falls will probably keep the threat for tornadoes at bay. 

LONG TERM: 

**** SIGNIFICANT TORNADO/SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THURSDAY PM- FRIDAY AM*** 

The main focus in today's long term forecast issuance is the expected significant severe weather outbreak which is expected to unfold Thursday evening through Friday morning across large portions of the southeast. The SPC has highlighted an "Enhanced" risk of severe thunderstorms for areas close to Memphis and points south. There is a slight risk from roughly Dyersburg to Humboldt to the TN river and points south, with a marginal risk of severe weather for the rest of the area. Simply put: The environment is primed for severe weather: Extreme wind fields as the result of a very stout LLJ will be present ahead of a very strong cold front and a very potent low pressure system. CAPE values from 400-1500 j/k, bulk shear exceeding 70 knots, and extreme SRH values of close to 400-500 m2s2 will support the risk of all severe hazards including violent tornadoes, damaging winds and very large hail. THIS IS A PARTICUARLY DANGEROUS SET-UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER!!! Please prepare now for this event! Have multiple ways of receiving warnings and know your severe weather safety plan. 

This threat Thursday has the potential to produce multiple, long track, violent, destructive tornadoes tracking across our area, especially if the center of low pressure tracks further north and west. 

Severe weather aside, a secondary threat of flash flooding will also exist. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Moderate risk of Excessive Rainfall for Thursday across the entire area.  Rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches on top of an already saturated ground could make for a dangerous situation outside of any severe storms. In addition, gusty winds will not help our situation either, as winds could gust up to 30-40 mph, making tree and powerline damage possible.

Bottom Line: A very active weather day Thursday is expected. Prepare now for the triple threat of dangerous Severe weather, flash flooding, and strong gusty winds (outside of any thunderstorm). 

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